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At 06:11 PM 4/18/2002 -0400, you wrote:
>Nice trade.....
>I am looking to go long on <any> of the internet stocks.....
>but I think they are mostly going to zero.
The internet will, eventually, fulfill the expectations for commerce which
people believed possible. The problem was that when the bubble was
inflating and eventually bursting, people were looking for instant
results. Instant growth and instant profits and every company that moved
to the net, would see sales growth into the stratosphere. Well, as we all
know, that didn't happen. Women spend most of the money in America and
women are 1/10 of the computer shoppers. Women want to *see* what they are
buying and they want to hold it, touch it. They want a building to take it
back to when there is a problem and they want to get a receipt and have
their check accepted instantly. The street forgot something about Inet
commerce..... they forgot that men hate to shop and love the idea of buying
on line but women .. now that's another story. Women LOVE to shop .. it's
an event .. a day out .. social times with friends ..
So what sold and does sell on line? Computers, software, home and auto
electronics .. Male purchases .. the gender who spends the least of the
purchasing pie.
Women are slowly accepting the idea of on line buying. Slowly deciding
that if a brick mortar business that they know, has an on line site, some
things could be purchased there. As these barriers come down and women
gradually gain confidence in using a credit card on line and buying things
they can't touch on line, e-commerce will become what the bubble thought it
would but a large percentage of the high flyers who were expected to be the
flag ships of this revallution in buying habits will be long gone and the
Sears and Pennys and Walmarts, etc., etc., will be right there on the web
and one reason why .. maybe the most important reason why? Because mom
can buy it on line but take it back to the neighborhood store if she wants
to exchange it.
Having said that, the best "internet stock" as I see it is EBAY but I won't
pay 160 X earnings and even their growth is beginning to slow. Others are
PayPal, VRSN and Travelocity but again, these stocks are not cheap in terms
of PE .. they just have niches that have taken root into cyber space. I'm
sure there are others and I wish you well in finding them but for what
it's worth, I'd look elsewhere and if you just want an internet company,
buy WMT. :))
All best,
Bob
A
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