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Like I said, you're obviously not a trader. So if you somehow prove
that fibos work 51% of the time it works but if it only works 49% of
the time it doesn't?
I've often seen the fibo retraces in a 2nd or B wave retrace act as a
spring board for huge moves. More often it doesn't. But if you have
the proper set-up and have other forms of analysis confirming the
time and price, the fibo level can be a high confidence trade. So if
you're wrong you got stopped out for a small loss. If you're right
it could be a huge money maker.
And who's says you're going to lose money if it works less than half
the time? what are you, an accountant?
Anyone who depends solely on fibo analysis would be a moron. You can
try to prove the fibo's statistical accuracy all you want and its not
going to make any difference. And as I already mentioned, I can come
up with an infinite number of fibo applications, so there's no point
in analyzing whether it works or doesn't work.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, ztrader <ztrader@xxxx> wrote:
> On Monday, April 15, 2002, 8:29:58 PM, bondo92677 wrote:
>
> b> Just like everything else, it works and doesn't work.
>
> Yep - I was just trying to see if we could find the probability,
just
> like with anything else. Work/don't work is binary - I was just
trying
> to get a better measure, that's all.
>
> b> when you mention fibos, you're not only mentioning .618, .382,
> b> .236, .146 retracements but reciprocals, and roots and power
> b> levels. You can use fibos for extension targets, alternate wave
> b> comparisons, and time targets.
>
> OK, but I'm missing your point.
>
> b> If it worked you made money, if it didn't you lost a few tics.
>
> If the probability of 'working' is .05, you will soon be broke. :-)
>
> b> Show me something that works all the time and I'll be The
Amazing
> b> Randi.
>
> Ummmm.... I don't think anyone was asking for something that worked
> all the time. Can you point to a post that asks for that? A
probability
> doesn't mean it works all the time, as Vegas visitors know well. :-)
>
> ztrader
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