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On Monday, April 15, 2002, 11:36:14 AM, Andrew Nopper wrote:
AN> I don't measure every swing and enter on a Fib retracement - my
AN> pockets aren't that deep!
If I may reinterpret a bit, are you saying that fibs, *by themselves*,
are not that good?
AN> The context for me is a non-Fib based signal, or confluence
AN> between a Fib line and some other indicator.
Are you saying that (1) the fib increases the probability by being
coincident with the other indicator, but is not enough by itself, or
(2) the presence of the other indicator makes the fib significantly
more reliable [the fib works better than usual when the other
indicator is doing something]?
AN> My point is that unless you program something like this, then you
AN> have no right to claim that your programmatic analysis is
AN> conclusive proof that Fib doesn't work.
**I** am not claiming anything just yet. :-) If we can get to a point
where an analysis seems to model how traders select fibs, then we
might be able to actually calculate some probabilities.
AN> It only proves that it's harder to program than people might
AN> think.
I agree, but probably for different reasons. :-)
AN> As for giving it a try, I'm afraid that there's too much
AN> discretion in what I do, and not enough years left in which to do
AN> it. :)
Hey - your note added a bit more information to the pile. All it takes
is continuing in the discussion.
ztrader
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