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Clyde,
The results you posted beg the question why
did the "test analysis" run, not pick any of the dates I gave, all of
which were reasonably close to a .382 retracement fom the primary trend down
(March 2000 high to the September low)? It would appear what your
technique is analysing is not what is being used in trading, yet conclusions are
being drawn? How can one be so sure of the facts when this simple test did
not pick out 4 fairly clear hits 1/7/02 (or 1/7/02, 3/8/02 or 3/11/02,
3/11/02. and 3/19/02 off the primary top. It would appear the analysis
technique is not able to pick off a retracement of a prior multi-leg move or am
I miss interpreting what you posted. The fact remains a .382 level turned
back prices in this isolated case and the analysis failed to pick up the
points?
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde Lee
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 9:21
PM
Subject: [RT] Fibo predictions--Don E.
Questions
Before I answer Don's questions I want to make it
clear that I think it is time
to end this discussion.
It is clear that those of you who wish to believe that
FIB lines drawn on a
chart have more validity to indicate turning points than
do randomly
drawn lines will continue to believe such in the face of
overwhelming
scientific evidence to the contrary.
Those of you who accept the scientific method should now
recognize
that a thorough study has been made and presented and
clearly shows
that RANDOM lines are just as valid for picking turning
points as FIB
lines.
I believe that any more on this would be beating a dead
horse.
Clyde
Don asked:
Could you run a simple test from 3/24/00 (daily)
to today and tell us whether the
following dates
came out at or near .382 retracement?
Answer:----NONE ! ! !
I ran the analysis using 3, 5, and 7 bar detection
concepts.
You will note that, as expected, the smaller the
interval used in the
detection the greater number of pivots are
detected.
I have shown the dates you listed followed by the dates
closest on
which we found picks by this method.
<FONT
face=Arial>
7 Bar Picks 5 Bar Picks 3 Bar
Picks1/4/02 01/02/2002
=0.5670
0.5670
1.14971/7/02 01/07/2002
=1.4340
1.4340
1.43403/8/02
3/11/02 03/11/2002
=1.9593
1.9593
1.95933/18/02
3/19/02 03/19/2002
=1.0413
1.0413
1.0413
7 Bar Picks01/02/2002 6 2
1114.53 1164.64 1136.23 0.567001/07/2002 2
9 1164.64 1136.23 1176.97 1.434001/23/2002
9 1 1136.23 1176.97 1117.43
1.461501/24/2002 1 6 1176.97 1117.43
1139.50 0.370702/06/2002 6 0 1117.43
1139.50 1077.78 2.796602/14/2002 0 6
1139.50 1077.78 1124.72 0.760502/20/2002 6
0 1077.78 1124.72 1074.36 1.072903/11/2002
0 7 1124.72 1074.36 1173.03
1.959303/13/2002 7 4 1074.36 1173.03
1151.01 0.223203/19/2002 4 9 1173.03
1151.01 1173.94 1.041304/11/2002 9 1
1151.01 1173.94 1102.42 3.1191
5 Bar Picks01/02/2002 6 2 1114.53
1164.64 1136.23 0.567001/07/2002 2 9
1164.64 1136.23 1176.97 1.434001/23/2002 9
1 1136.23 1176.97 1117.43 1.461501/24/2002
1 6 1176.97 1117.43 1139.50
0.370701/30/2002 6 0 1117.43 1139.50
1081.66 2.620801/31/2002 0 6 1139.50
1081.66 1130.21 0.839402/06/2002 6 0
1081.66 1130.21 1077.78 1.079902/14/2002 0
6 1130.21 1077.78 1124.72 0.895302/20/2002
6 0 1077.78 1124.72 1074.36
1.072903/11/2002 0 7 1124.72 1074.36
1173.03 1.959303/13/2002 7 4 1074.36
1173.03 1151.01 0.223203/19/2002 4 9
1173.03 1151.01 1173.94 1.041303/26/2002 9
1 1151.01 1173.94 1131.61 1.846103/28/2002
1 6 1173.94 1131.61 1154.45
0.539604/11/2002 6 0 1131.61 1154.45
1102.42 2.2780
3 Bar Picks01/02/2002 9 1 1139.93
1164.64 1136.23 1.149701/07/2002 1 7
1164.64 1136.23 1176.97 1.434001/23/2002 7
1 1136.23 1176.97 1117.43 1.461501/24/2002
1 6 1176.97 1117.43 1139.50
0.370701/30/2002 6 0 1117.43 1139.50
1081.66 2.620801/31/2002 0 6 1139.50
1081.66 1130.21 0.839402/06/2002 6 0
1081.66 1130.21 1077.78 1.079902/14/2002 0
6 1130.21 1077.78 1124.72 0.895302/20/2002
6 0 1077.78 1124.72 1074.36
1.072903/11/2002 0 7 1124.72 1074.36
1173.03 1.959303/13/2002 7 4 1074.36
1173.03 1151.01 0.223203/19/2002 4 9
1173.03 1151.01 1173.94 1.041303/26/2002 9
1 1151.01 1173.94 1131.61 1.846103/28/2002
1 6 1173.94 1131.61 1154.45
0.539604/08/2002 6 0 1131.61 1154.45
1111.79 1.867804/10/2002 0 6 1154.45
1111.79 1131.76 0.4681
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 11:30
AM
Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
Clyde,
Your reply below would indicate that multiple
leg moves and retracements are taken into account if I understand it
correctly?
Could you run a simple test from 3/24/00
(daily) to today and tell us whether the following dates came out at or near
.382 retracement?
1/4/02
1/7/02
3/8/02
3/11/02
3/18/02
3/19/02
I too use fibs frequently, in fact it is hard
to look a chart and not see hits that occur along with other things I
use. Makes me a bit concerned that the analysis "may" not be doing
what it is supposed to be doing. Can you do this simple test to put my
mind at ease about the above and post the output results in text fashion (to
see if these are picked up as .382 or thereabouts) and by a similar chart to
see the distribution?
Thanks in advance,
don ewers
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