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Jim,
Need a bit more information in the definition of a
swing pivot.
Using your definition, I created the attached chart
in which I
used a 2 bar and a 3 bar lookback following your
logic.
As you can see there is a difference and
consequently
it would appear that we would have to give this
technique
a 3 bar lookback for it to be nearest
correct.
This chart was made using the same program that I
used
for creating the data for the FIB analysis with the
exception
of replacing the call to Swing_Lee_Simple
with a call to
a routine which I call
Swing_White_Simple that has been
programmed with your logic.
Is what is shown what you expect ? ? ?
?
Note that there is a green line wandering through
the data
connecting the characters b (for
bottom) and t (for top)
which shows the point at which a swing is detected
and it
is from that point that projections must be
made.
Sorry for the large size .gif but it is
necessary to show the
details of such study.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Jim White
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 11:28
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] $1000.00
CHALLANGE
Clyde,
You are correct. The definition of a reversal is
as follows:
For a high pivot, the reversal is confirmed by a
close below the low of the bar with the highest high. For a low pivot, the
reversal is confirmed by the close above the high of the bar with the lowest
low. Prediction of the next reversal high or low must be posted with email
date of that day. And yes I am restricting the challenge to daily data as a
matter of practicality.
Jim
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde Lee
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 6:45
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] $1000.00
CHALLANGE
Jim,
For this to be a viable challenge you must
specify what is a "REVERSAL" for
purposes of this test.
The definition must be one for which an
algorithm can be written to detect all
reversals that are to be considered and such
must be a reasonable
approach to determining such
reversals.
Until this definition exists then it would be
foolish to begin to try to predict
undefined reversals.
From your post it would seem that you are
looking at daily data. Is that a
correct assumption or are other time intervals
for price measurement
to be considered.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Jim White
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 8:36
PM
Subject: [RT] $1000.00
CHALLANGE
Perhaps my challenge went unnoticed. I
believe that predicting the price of a reversal is not possible. If anyone
can prove a method that will predict the reversal price of a market within
50% of the five day average range, 80% % of the time . I will pay you
$1000.00. The rules are simple. Predict ahead of time by this list the
reversal price for 100 observations and have 80 % or more within
actual reversal price +/- 25% of average daily range. Are there any
takers?
Jim
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