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Let us get back to the original thesis of this
discussion:
Are FIB levels any better than RANDOM
levels.
The analysis I have provided indicate that NEITHER
holds
an advantage over the other.
It is easy to pick one or two examples which seem
to indicate
that there is significance in FIB levels but if we
look at some
1500 to 2000 pivots over a period of 72 years or so
there is
clear proof that FIB levels are no more significant
than some
kind of random selection of numbers.
This analysis has been run from very minor swings
to very
major swings and the same distribution
exists.
I know that there are people who swear by FIB as a
guide to
pivots and have used their concepts successfully
but the fact
is that there is no more significance to FIB levels
than some
random set of numbers we select.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
wavemechanic
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 7:03
PM
Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
Clyde:
I think you have oversimplified a fairly complex
problem. The goal is to identify the major turns within perhaps +/-
1-2%, as in the case of similar studies (e.g., pitchforks,
So9, etc.). In order to do this, traders usually use more than
just fibo levels to make a judgement as to what the significant
level is. They look for meshing between major fibo levels and other
subjective/objective factors (e.g., EW, indicators, etc.). Take a look
at the attached. Would your analysis pick up the major turns on this
MSFT daily, rejecting the minor swings within each leg? That is the
primary goal. My guess is that you will have to use different pivot
parameters to catch major and minor turns. I also suspect that
consistent results will be very difficult to achieve using pivots alone.
I do know, however, that more often than not the major turns are in
synch with the "standard" fib, So9, etc. levels. In
addition, there appears to be reasonable evidence that the patterns are
fractal, extending up/down in time. Of course, to see that one has to
change the "microscope's magnification" by, for example, adjusting pivot
"+/-" size, indicator settings, etc., as a one size fits all would most
probably not be suitable in the majority of cases.
<FONT
size=2>
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde Lee
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 4:13
PM
Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
What does it take to prove that Fib
numbers have no validity in
estimating where prices might make a
turn.
I have posted several charts which
clearly prove this is the
case and yet we continue to hear BS
about Fib numbers.
Just to make it clear, here is an
explanation of the method
behind the attached chart.
Consider a swing such as the
following"
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> b
/
\
/ \
/ \
a \
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
\
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
c
and calculate the ratio
(b-a)/(b-c)
or a swing of the following
type
a
\
\
\ c
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> \
/
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> \ /
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> b
and calculate the ratio
(a-b)/(c-b)
Do this with a mathematically definable
method
of picking swings and accumulate the
ratios in
a spread sheet, sort the data by ratio,
and make
a chart.
The attached is exactly that chart for
the S&P
index from 1930 until now using an 8
bar length
window for picking pivots.
A careful examination will indicate a
more or less
CONTINUIOUS distribution of ratios of
the 1713 swings
which existed in the period of study
and had a ratio
of less than 2.0.
If there were ANY VALIDITY to the
concept of turning
of prices at FIB levels then there
would be a bunching
of data about the various FIB levels
and not the very
continuous distribution that is found
in the data.
Again, people may use the fib levels as
levels at
which to be aware of potential turns in
direction of
prices but the analysis says that we
are just as well
off with a random set of lines since
there will not
be any grouping around them
either.
Please, examine these data in detail
and if I am
missing something then provide the data
or interpretation
of these data that says
otherwise.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - -Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
ztrader
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 1:37
PM
Subject: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
On Saturday, April 13, 2002, 11:10:12 AM, wavemechanic
wrote:w> Are you thinking that confluence is
associated with Fibs only?w> Could it be extended to
any coincidence of indicators?w> As long as the
indicators are truely different (e.g., velocity vs acceleration,
etc.).How about a 50 ma and a 200 ma with identical values, and
price isapproaching this value? Would this 'confluence' have more
importancethan if the two ma's had quite different
values?ztraderTo unsubscribe from this
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