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What does it take to prove that Fib numbers
have no validity in
estimating where prices might make a
turn.
I have posted several charts which clearly
prove this is the
case and yet we continue to hear BS about
Fib numbers.
Just to make it clear, here is an
explanation of the method
behind the attached chart.
Consider a swing such as the
following"
b
/
\
/ \
/ \
a \
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
\
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
c
and calculate the ratio
(b-a)/(b-c)
or a swing of the following
type
a
\
\
\ c
\ /
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> \ /
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> b
and calculate the ratio
(a-b)/(c-b)
Do this with a mathematically definable
method
of picking swings and accumulate the ratios
in
a spread sheet, sort the data by ratio, and
make
a chart.
The attached is exactly that chart for the
S&P
index from 1930 until now using an 8 bar
length
window for picking pivots.
A careful examination will indicate a more
or less
CONTINUIOUS distribution of ratios of the
1713 swings
which existed in the period of study and
had a ratio
of less than 2.0.
If there were ANY VALIDITY to the concept
of turning
of prices at FIB levels then there would be
a bunching
of data about the various FIB levels and
not the very
continuous distribution that is found in
the data.
Again, people may use the fib levels as
levels at
which to be aware of potential turns in
direction of
prices but the analysis says that we are
just as well
off with a random set of lines since there
will not
be any grouping around them
either.
Please, examine these data in detail and if
I am
missing something then provide the data or
interpretation
of these data that says
otherwise.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - -Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
ztrader
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 1:37
PM
Subject: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
On Saturday, April 13, 2002, 11:10:12 AM, wavemechanic
wrote:w> Are you thinking that confluence is associated
with Fibs only?w> Could it be extended to any coincidence
of indicators?w> As long as the indicators are truely
different (e.g., velocity vs acceleration, etc.).How about a 50 ma and
a 200 ma with identical values, and price isapproaching this value? Would
this 'confluence' have more importancethan if the two ma's had quite
different values?ztraderTo
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