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Hello M.,
another view--not from the techincal but from the parental side--
AOL has something going for it in the long term that is priceless--a
whole generation of kids and novice adults (mainly the former) who
grew up on AOL. they get a warm fuzzy when "you've got mail" echoes
thru their bedroom or when the little tinkle of AIM shoots over the
speakers.
my expectation is that these peole will cling to AOL just as my
mother's generation clung to ATT for long distance (and investments)
even tho its time had passed.
that is not a growth recipie however--its a cash cow prospect. AOL
needs to recognize that as its base case. if it does it can milk that
sucker for 25 years.
--
Best regards,
Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Wednesday, April 10, 2002, 8:53:18 PM, you wrote:
MS> guys, guy, guys....I know this internet / isp business.....trust me !
MS> re: AOL subscriber reduction caused by....
MS> widely known alternate ISPs with a much lower monthly fee and decent service
MS> - that is getting around word-of-mouth:
MS> Bluelight.com $9/mo
MS> juno.net/netzero.com $10/mo
MS> bigzoo.com $9/mo
MS> AOL IS AT $24/mo !!!!!
MS> Also, their DSL strategy is flawed......local baby bells have a lock on the
MS> DSL installation...
MS> and heck, they are AGGRESSIVELY MARKETING THIS SERVICE......I just got an
MS> phone call this evening ! (I already have DSL thru a CLEC just coming out of
MS> bankruptcy)
MS> Finally, COMCAST and other cable operators are finally getting better at
MS> this ISP service (it used to be terrible via Excite/@xxxx - now bankrupt)
MS> and again, these cable guys are aggressively marketing thru affiliates like
MS> Circuit City, Best Buy, etc.
MS> There is just NO WAY I see tremendous growth prospects for AOL.....
MS> again, at best, it's a BUY-WRITE.
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Don Ewers [mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>> Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 5:28 PM
>> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: Re: [RT] AOL
>>
>>
>> Bob,
>> I know you are and nothing wrong with that, just through out some of that
>> "techy stuff" to keep you alert to the possibilities.
>> Did you happen to check on the lows was there any good premium in the 20
>> puts or 17.5's (as in selling them)?
>>
>> Also M. Simms could you elaborate on why the loss of subscribers,
>> they sure
>> advertise a lot (and do mailings).
>> don ewers
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 2:45 PM
>> Subject: Re: [RT] AOL
>>
>>
>> > Thanks Don,
>> >
>> > As you already know, I am a fundamental trader but you tech
>> guys are part
>> > of my fundamental scheme. If you are in consort with regard to
>> an equity,
>> > index or commodity, I pay attention. I respect everyone's
>> ideas and what
>> > works for them and you sharing this information is helpful and
>> appreciated.
>> >
>> > Bob
>> >
>> >
>> > At 01:40 PM 4/10/2002 -0500, you wrote:
>> > >BobKC,
>> > >Here is the 60min chart on AOL (I added the daily again if needed for
>> > >reference).
>> > >
>> > >It is just looking at the price structure from minor wave 4 of
>> wave 5 on
>> the
>> > >daily (basically the point where the regression channels start on the
>> daily
>> > >chart). If the pattern is correct, then it is in the extended wave 3
>> range
>> > >which only happens 8% of the time. In otherwords a time to
>> tighten stops
>> if
>> > >one were short or cover. What could happen from here is a wave
>> 4 rally on
>> > >the 60min, followed by another final wave 5 decline (provided the PTI
>> stays
>> > >high enough, currently 99) that might reach down into the refined area
>> shown
>> > >on the daily.
>> > >
>> > >The wave 4 rally could trigger a "false buy on the daily" (braking the
>> > >regression lines and 6/4 ma), which I call the "fooler", until
>> pattern is
>> > >"really" done.
>> > >
>> > >As an add on I have not used 60min charts on stocks all that
>> much (do on
>> > >commodities though) so this falls in the FWIW department
>> (meaning little
>> > >experience as to the accuracy).
>> > >don ewers
>> > >
>> > >----- Original Message -----
>> > >From: Don Ewers <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > >Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 1:05 PM
>> > >Subject: Re: [RT] AOL
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > > BobKC,
>> > > > Here is what AGET is saying on a daily chart FWIW.
>> > > >
>> > > > Price is definitely into some support areas including the MOB's and
>> just
>> > > > entering the wave 5 target range (I also did an "internal" wave
>> projection
>> > > > of just wave 5 which shows an even more refineded target range which
>> "may"
>> > > > come into play as well).
>> > > >
>> > > > Typical trade rules would require a break of the regression channels
>> or
>> > >the
>> > > > 6/4 ma channels to trigger a buy. I will look at a 60min to
>> see if it
>> > > > reveals anything more in detail. If so I will post it.
>> > > > don ewers
>> > > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > > From: <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > > Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 12:21 PM
>> > > > Subject: [RT] AOL
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > > > I felt that a bottom may have been put in for AOL today and bought
>> in at
>> > > > > 20.33. The 20M new shares was filled without effort and the low
>> volume
>> > > > > leveled ... Warner is worth about $22 as a weighted mc which means
>> AOL
>> > >is
>> > > > > free and you get TW at a 10% discount. Just my thoughts and
>> action..
>> > >all
>> > > > > due diligence in order of course.
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Bob
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>> > >realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
MS> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>> >
>> >
>>
>>
>>
>> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>
>>
>>
>> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>>
>>
MS> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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