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On Wednesday, April 10, 2002, 5:54:16 PM, wavemechanic wrote:
w> I seems to me if you had a small army of RTers that would feed info
w> to you eventually a statistically valid evaluation would emerge.
That is NOT what I had in mind. :-) Originally, I was just asking if
anyone knew of an existing statistical analysis of Fib retraces.
w> However, before starting down that road, I think it is necessary to
w> define what a "hit" is. In other words, touch a Fibonacci level
w> +/- ??? 0%, 1%, etc.
Agreed. We can easily define a band around each line. I don't want to
get into 'fuzzy' hits. :-)
w> It is probably also necessary to define the type of level (
w> retracement, extension, APPs) as the statistics might be a function
w> of type.
Agreed. I'd settle for just a simple Fibo retracement set to start.
w> So, are you going to work up the spreadsheet?
I wasn't, but we seem to be going along a bit more than I expected.
Nobody has mentioned what might be the biggest problem - defining what
we mean by a 'swing' , from which we draw the fibs. This can introduce
more variables than first meets the eye. :-) I suspect it is this
issue that will make it more difficult to do well. We can have %
swings, # bar swings, variable swings, adaptive swings.... What *do*
we mean by a swing?
I'm sure Clyde will jump in here with his view. :-)
ztrader
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