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ZT:
I seems to me if you had a small army of RTers that
would feed info to you eventually a statistically valid evaluation would
emerge. However, before starting down that road, I think it is necessary
to define what a "hit" is. In other words, touch a Fibonacci level +/-
??? 0%, 1%, etc. It is probably also necessary to define
the type of level ( retracement, extension, APPs) as the statistics might be a
function of type. Then one could start collecting data. Of course,
if one is going to go down this road, might as well throw in the Square of 9
levels +/- ???. As well as the other flavors that are floating
around. I suppose all one has to do is develop a spreadsheet with all
the type defined and their "hit" range. Input the high/low and out pops
the answer as to which "flavor" got hit. So, are you going to work up the
spreadsheet? If so, you could share with all that want to participate and
in a relatively short time the answer(s) will be
available.
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
ztrader
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 8:20
PM
Subject: Re[2]: [RT] random price moves
in ES?
On Wednesday, April 10, 2002, 4:42:21 PM, Ira Tunik
wrote:IT> Nothing works perfectly all the time,This is a
mathematical issue and is subject to mathematical analysis.Would you
agree? Can't we try to establish the statistical occurenceof some event we
are describing? Sort of like the odds peoplecalculate in some game of
chance. Why can't we do the same kind ofcalculations about Fibo retraces?
It's just math.IT> that is why someone invented the stop
order.Yep. This is a *different* issue. This is a *trading* technique
thatgets invoked when you are on the wrong side of the *math*.I am
***NOT*** looking at trading systems. I am trying to keep theunderlying
math basis separate from the trading part. My question hasnothing to do
with trading - just math. I am just asking about thestatistical occurrence
of turning points at Fib levels. I am NOTincluding how to trade
them.IT> If you are looking for a mathematical method that will
give you aIT> 100% probability or predictability, there isn't
one.Of course not. I'm not sure how you came to that
conclusion.IT> I have a system that gives me an 80% probability and
hasIT> done so over the years.Does this mean that 80% of your
trades are profitable? If so, that isNOT the kind of data I am
discussing.If you are saying that the underlying *mathematical* basis
of yoursystem has an 80% probability of being correct, independently of
any*trading* techniques, then that is an entirely different matter.
Doyou see the difference I am referring to? If so, which of
thesedifferent things are you referring to - trades or math?IT>
Being right all the time isn't the key to profitability.Of course.
First, we're not talking about "all the time", just "howoften". I think
the stats of your underlying 'basis' do influence thedesign of the system,
though. Would you not agree?IT> Someone wrote that if you took all
the money and assets in worldIT> and distributed them evenly among
everyone on earth that thoseIT> that have all the money now would end
up with all the money then.I can believe that. :-) Still, I don't see
what that has to do with myquestion about a mathematical probability. It
would seem that onecould work through a problem in statistics class
without having totake into account 'all the money in the world'.
:-)ztraderTo unsubscribe from this group, send an email
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