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On Wednesday, April 10, 2002, 2:23:54 PM, Don Ewers wrote:
DE> For some that is viewed as a major flaw in EW.
It is not necessarily a 'flaw', but it might have an effect on the
statistical validity of EW 'predictions'. I would presume that people
use EW to get some idea of future market behavior. If the changed EW
count also changes that 'prediction, then I would count that
prediction as invalid. If this is done over a large number of
'predictions', then one would get an idea of the reliability of the
technique.
DE> get hung up on the fact that something had changed :-)
Nothing to get hung up about; it's just a piece if information. :-)
DE> you frequently are still on the right side of the trade,
It might be nice to know the stats on this. How frequently?
DE> you just need adjust profit targets and or stop losses to fit the
DE> new pattern.
This seems to say that the 'prediction' was wrong, and one has to
adjust to the new 'prediction'. Traders do that all the time, I know,
so there is nothing inherently bad about it. I am only trying to
address the stats of the *occurrence*, with no judgements being made,
or no discussion of trading techniques, such as stop losses, that
protect against wrong predictions. One is pure math, the other is
trading techniques, and I'm trying to keep them distinct.
DE> Recently I have begun to notice that there seems to be a fair amount of
DE> similarity to various methods.
Agreed. :-))
ztrader
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