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It's definitely been more difficult (boring or frustrating might be a better
choice) over the past 5 months for the ES/NQ, but it really started to
change for the worse in late 2000. The market seems to lack a purpose now
and spends most/all of its time range bound or hopping from range to range.
Volatility is almost nonexistent and it appears catatonic most days. It
really makes me sad to look at intraday charts from pre-2001 because that
market did more in a day than the current one does in a month, and I am not
exaggerating. Kind of like going from playing golf on a private, manicured
golf course where the greens are receptive with a nice breeze to playing on
a $7 all-you-can-play municipal course that's dried out with 25mph
winds....from a birdie rich environment to a bogie rich environment.
There are still opportunities though if you adapt but you need to be very
patient and very adept at trading inside ranges right now. If you look at
the last month on the S&P we've gone from 1176-1153 to 1153-1134 and now
we're chopping around inside 1134/1121. The ND has been worse. The same
pattern exists if you go back to November, just different ranges.
Diversification to other markets is an option. I know I used to focus on
the indexes almost exclusively but am trading other markets now. Bonds have
been just great lately. I see bull markets in certain sectors of the stock
market but the big cap stocks that drive the indexes are in a funk and
likely to remain there for quite awhile. Some commodities have made large
moves. There's always something moving if you look.
As for when things get back to "normal" I guess we'd have to define normal
first. Was the great bull normal or is what we're experiencing now normal,
or is somewhere in between normal. Is there even a "normal"? Plus some
people didn't like the volatility we used to have and prefer the quiet we
have now. I can't understand that from a traders perspective but it will
result in varied responses to your question. In any event, we had a Big
party and now we have the hangover, and hangovers tend to last a lot longer
than the parties, or so I hear...:-)
Bob
----- Original Message -----
From: Sean Cassidy
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 07, 2002 2:04 PM
Subject: [RT] A Difficult market???
A simple question......For someone who trades primarily equities and their
options, as well as the E Mini Nasdaq and S&P, has this market been
difficult to trade overall. I was just trying to solicit the opinions of
other traders out there, as I work primarily alone and tend to get somewhat
isolated. I have managed to grind out small profits since January....but
think in general, I should of done better. And if this is in case a
difficult market, when do people foresee things returning to "normal"?
Thanks
Sean
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