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Ira,
I agree with you that it is the understanding that
is key to trading success.A static cycle view of market movement is an attempt
to model market movement. However , the point I was trying to make is that
the static cycle model of market movement is flawed and fails to explain
expanding and contracting cycles, inversions and other real world
characteristics. Attempts have been made to synthesize a markets movement by a
composite of dominate cycles and they all fail after a short period of time
because of the non linear periodicity and sensitivity to new
impulses.
Understanding the nature of market movement will
enhance a traders success.
Jim
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Ira Tunik
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, April 04, 2002 10:41
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] cycles
All time cycles have a tendency to expand and contract and the
shorter cycles are impacted by longer cycles. They are good for a guide
in utilizing what ever system you use. Like anything else you can carry
cycles to an extreme as they did in the 70s after Hurst published his findings
on cycles. There are certain things that seem to remain constant and
that is that time cycles provide both positive and negative pressure upon
price. That directional changes take place on the 1/2 cycle and that
nothing in trading is set in stone. So it is the understanding of what
you are using that is the key to success in trading and not the blind use of
some indicator or trading methodology. Ira.
Jim White wrote:
Ira, My work, based on chaos theory, models the
market as a nonlinear dynamic system with the dominate cycles
being either expanding or contracting periods. Static cycles, such as
this , are a linear approach and may work for a while but can invert or
change period. Do you have contrary evidence that this 31 hour cycle is
reliable over the longer term? Jim <A
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