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All of the timing models propsed so far are no more accurate then that put
forth by Hurst in his first book. At least he had entry and exit solutions.
They were not great, but he had them. Many for the fib retracement numbers
are self fulfilling. While on the floor a trader friend of mine asked the
question,"do you use fib numbers in your technical analysis?". The reply
was, "do you think I would risk my money trading a system based upon rabbits
multiplying?". I will look at the fib numbers to see what the others are
trading from. If a fib number appears near one of my price objectives, I
will exit prior to that number and wait and see what happens. I put the
money in my pocket and wait and see what will happen next. There is always
another entry. I don't believe that stops should be based upon 50% of
anything, or a specific money amount, or any other rule that negates what the
screen indicates. Your stop should reflect your system telling you that you
are wrong and not your pocket book. Your pocket book should determine what
time frame you should trade so that your stop doesn't exceed your money
management system. Ira
John Cappello wrote:
> Does anyone have the time and motivation to backtest these rules or
> some variation thereof and share the ELA if decent performance?
>
> Rule# 1. If there is an increase in cash as represented by an
> increase + or a decreased negative between the price at 10 AM and
> 10:15 AM EST then Buy.
>
> Rule# 2. That would be the reciprocal of number 1, then sell.In
> clearer languge if there is a decrease in cash as represented by a
> decrease in + cash or an increase negative,then Sell
>
> Stop loss .0038 of whatever the S&P cash is
>
> Profit floor .0038 of whatever the S&P cash is
>
> 50% traiing stop if profit floor reached
>
> exit at 11:5 A.M.
>
> Any changes or suggestions welcome. Forgive me for my number
> orientation. Those ofm you who have chart capability may be able to
> see this more clearly as to feasability.
>
> Sincerely,
>
> John
>
>
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>
>
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