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The first half hour and the last half hour are the floor traders, market makers
and speciatlists time to make their living. The rest of the day is usually just
handling the order flow. I have relayed this message many times. The first
half hour will set up the next trade, not by what it does during that half hour,
but what it does in relation to the time frame and cycle that you are trading.
It will be the basis for the next up/down trade. There used to be the time of
day that the funds liquidated stocks because of redemptions. There used to be
the last half hour syndrome. Down all day and rally the last half hour meant a
strong market, because the professionals were buying. That lasted for a little
while. The point is that the reasons constantly change because those that
report about the market need new reasons to print and stimulate interest in
their columns, news letters and the market. The market movers constantly
change. There was a time when money supply, balance of payments, interest rates
or some other number would effect the market. You would wait for a number to
come out on Thursday after the close so you would know what to do on Friday
mornings open. Times change and what pressures the markets price also changes.
So use unemployment, and other government numbers with care and use timing by
the hour with care also. Ira.
BobR wrote:
> There have been systems developed around those time periods. They are
> called the SmartMoney DumbMoney Index systems. The AM move is attributed to
> the public and the PM to the pros whoever they are. The 10AM move, usually
> a fade, is the end of the first 30 minute bracket used by the market
> profilers. Where the open is with respect to the previous day's value area
> and the first two 30 minute brackets provide clues to the rest of the
> morning and sometimes the day. John Clayburg has a free Directional Day
> indicator at his website http://www.clayburg.com that plots a horizontal
> line at the average of the high and low of the first five minutes as well as
> plotting a vertical line at the 60 minute mark after the open. Attached is
> a chart of this along with two additonal horizontal lines that mark the
> first hour high and low. He writes about the use of this indicator in his
> recently published book "Four Steps to Trading Success". The amount of
> trading above and below the horizontal line up to the first hour determines
> the directional bias, in theory at least for the remainder of the day. I
> found it to be a good read and picked up a few useful ideas in the book.
> Getting back to the 2PM trend, that is quite well known also as the "bond"
> move. By then the day's trend in interest rates is pretty well established
> and the change in rates with respect to the previous day(s) is known and the
> neural nets start doing their readjustments on intemarket analysis which
> makes its way into stock movement as the bond trading nears the end of its
> morning session. The infusion of new mutual fund money begins to have an
> effect late in the day also.....strong days often get another boost about
> then.
>
> bobr
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> To: <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 2:22 AM
> Subject: [RT] Time and Motion Trading
>
> > Certain authors have written about the subject. The one I have been
> > casually following is an observation that the S&P market starts to
> > establish two major moves , one at 10 AM and another at 2 PM.
> >
> > I have just been observing the 10 AM move by logging in the cash
> > value at 10 AM and again at 10:15 AM. In 4 of the five days followed
> > the direction up or down movement was sustained to at least until
> > 11:15 for what appeared to be a profit.
> >
> > Has anyone tried to build a system around anything close to this
> > concept.?
> >
> > Ben made a beautiful post on calls with charts and all...no comments
> > from the peanut gallery likely because they did not understand it.
> >
> > P.S Quick response to recent blue sky and green grass people:
> >
> > The preponderance of sky particles are in the blue wave length and
> > not violet. I stand by my explanation previously posted . It is not
> > complicated.
> >
> > The plague was the Bubonic plague spread by rats somewhat like vermin
> > multiplying on this board as anticipated.
> >
> > Yes I know I had a typo of mnemonic.
> >
> > Now if only you could keep a trading post going as long as nonsense
> > this forum would be great again.
> >
> > Sincerely,
> >
> > John
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
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> 1sthour.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
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