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Don,
I have a simple question about the Fibonacci series that I really
never understood and that is the origin of .618 and .382 is any
given number divided by the following number, for .618, and any
number divided by the second following number, for .382. But so
what? I never really understood what that had to do with the
Fibonacci series and for that matter, what they have to do with
trading. Of course, they occur at points of support and resistence
and expansions and contractions from multiple pivots overlap at
major turning points, but, not always, and even then not with
anything that could be called statistically relevant. It seems to
me that in trading, because of rapidly changing market conditions,
there is really very little that is statistically relevant, that is,
very few patterns that are better than random chance. Of course it
is exciting when you pick a top or bottom, but isn't this just a form
of trader's placebo, to borrow a term from medicine?
jerry
>Ron,
>
>One book that deals with geometric ratios other than the Fibonacci Series.
>Here in you will
>discover that there is more to life than .618 and .382.
>Square Root 2, 3, and 5 and the reciprocals and the expanding and
>contracting of the series.
>
>Bryce Gilmore's first book ( Market Geometry) is a pretty apt description of
>the numbers and ratios that are out there that a freely
>traded market will work to. Gilmore is the one who brought the .786
>retracement to view for traders.
>It is left to you to see how it all fits together. So you have a bit of work
>cut out if you don't have a utility to calculate it easily. In ES such
>geometry works really good.
>
>His third book, Trading With an Edge, is a pretty good book about how he
>thinks, basically he uses his expertise
>in time and price to figure good guess as to current trend in the market,
>but when it comes to trading it is all
>pattern and low risk entry. His main point is to find those trades with low
>risk and load the boat, since they never
>come back on you. He doesn't hold over night. Also his method is pretty
>much pure price with no indicators, just
>the chart.
>
> A good example in ES is in the gif. the scale is the current days range
>at about 1:30,
>the point is that traders on the second rally at 1:30 sold at 1163.50 limit.
>The buy stop is one tick above 1164.00 or
>1164.25. So you only risk 3/4 of a point to figure if you are right or you
>are wrong. This is a low risk entry and
>is a discretionary kind of thing, as far as I know. This is one that will
>come back on you, but the internals were
>pretty grim so probably not. The biggest thing is to be around successful
>traders who are making money in the market
>that you want to trade! It will be really inspiring, and as you watch them
>work the market, you begin to see that it can be done.
>
>Don Thompson
>
>
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Jim Johnson" <jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: "Ron Cernokus" <roncer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 7:17 PM
>Subject: Re[2]: [RT] S&P Day Trading
>
>
>> Hello Ron,
>>
>> couple of ideas for you--
>>
>> I trade intraday SP's and have found I've learned most about patterns
>> from:
>>
>> Teresa Lo of www.trendvue.com. her chat room is OK for a while. her
>> Trader's Manual is very well written, clear, stripped of jargon and
>> fluff. good stuff on simple patterns and how she trades them.
>>
>> Linda Raschke course (expensive) is very good for that. the
>> StreetSmarts book is only fair for that purpose.
>>
>> Joe Ross's book Trading as a Business has some good stuff but is very
>> overpriced i think. his setup patterns are probably better explained
>> and used by T Lo above.
>>
>> Nisson or Morris for candlestick formations. a few basic ones are all
>> lyou need.
>>
>> Ultimate Trading Guide by Hill, Pruitt and Hill is very good for
>> patterns in the first half of the book especially.
>>
>> Although not geared to patterns only, Trader Vic by Vick Sperandeo has
> > some good stuff.
>>
>> I've just begun Alan Farley's Mater Swing Trader but it promises to be
>> very helpful.
>>
>> The one thing I've noticed is that after you strip away all the cute
>> names etc, many of these chart patterns are old as the markets. Many
>> of these current authors are repeating, with the help of easy-to-make
>> charts the same stuff old timers like Schabacker, Sklarew, Wyckoff,
>> Kerr, Dunnigan, Dow described earl in the 20th century. Candlesticks
>> are even older.
>>
>> If I could buy only one, it would be Teresa Lo's manual.
> >
>> --
>> Best regards,
>> Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>
>> Wednesday, March 20, 2002, 6:47:16 PM, you wrote:
>>
>>
>> RC> Don,
>>
>> RC> I also trade in the discretionary style you mentioned here. However I
>> RC> feel the need for better short term pattern recognition skills. Is
>> RC> there any text that you or other discretionary traders might like to
>> RC> recommend for short term pattern recognition. Comments appreciated.
>>
>> RC> Ron
>>
>>
>> RC> Don Thompson wrote:
>> >>
>> >> John,
>> >> Your first catostrophic stop loss is $3000 or 12 S&P Points? Whew..
>that
>> >> takes alot of balls to trade that level of
>> >> a stop. My inclination is to get it down to two points or so.. no more
>than
>> >> that. I can see you might have to make
>> >> a system do this kind of stop loss if you aren't looking at the actual
>> >> prices during the day trading it. The
>> >> day traders I know who are successful don't have more than a 2 point
>stop
>> >> loss and when in doubt they get out
>> >> at 1 or .50 at best. But they are purely discretionary traders that
>work off
>> >> of price and pattern.
>> >>
>> >> Don Thompson
>> >> ----- Original Message -----
>> >> From: "profitok" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 1:52 PM
>> >> Subject: Re: [RT] S&P Day Trading
>> >>
>> >> > hello john
>> >> > I can not see how you can make money if your profit objective is
>SMALLER
>> >> > than your stop loss
>> >> > nice day
>> >> > Ben
>> >> > ----- Original Message -----
>> >> > From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
>> >> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> > Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 6:44 AM
>> >> > Subject: [RT] S&P Day Trading
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > >
>> >> > > My system has not performed at max this year so far and I am doing
>> >> > > adjustments to current market conditions mainly related to
>psychology
>> >> > > of the market and ranges. I am still trading it at a low contract
>> >> > > levels 5% of asset allocation. After debugged will step up.
>> >> > >
>> >> > > Adjustments being made.........entry and exits not limited to Level
>2
>> >> > > and 3 Supports and Resistance.
>> >> > >
>> >> > > Widen trading ranges..............expected today [1179 to 1183]
>sell
>> >> > > points [1165 to 1169] buy points. No trade if total range beyond
>> >> > > 1183 to 1165 at open.
>> >> > >
>> >> > > My personal stops are $3000 ; min profit target $2000 ; trailing
>stop
>> >> > > once $1500 profit reached is $750 ; MOC or OCO if tweaked.
>> >> > >
>> >> > > John
>> >> > >
>> >> > >
>> >> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>> >> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >> > >
>> >> > >
>> >> > >
>> >> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
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>> >> > >
>> >> > >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
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>> >> >
>> >>
>> >>
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>> >>
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>>
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> >
>>
>
>
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