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I admit to using time in fits and starts .... most often when looking for
the end of a retracement and rarely when doing expansions. I should use time
more. I do highly recommend Miner's techniques.
Time wise, I always check weekly and daily charts before the trading day
begins and make frequent reference to hourly charts during the trading day.
>From there on, it's a matter of what I'm trading. I switch among time frames
until I find price patterns which make sense to me and offer levels of risk
and reward with which I am comfortable. The longer I've traded, the pickier
I've gotten and I find I can go several days without finding a trade I like.
Today, most of my time was spent watching 15m charts in ND and US, and 60
minute chart in SP. I ultimately used a 5m ND chart to enter a trade. I
often use 2 and 5m charts with bonds, rarely less than 5m with equities,
generally stick to hourly with the grains, tropicals, etc. Time frame is
always a trade-off between risk and noise so I only drop to a low time frame
when I see a workable trade in a higher time frame.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steve Schroeder" <sgs35@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 5:49 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] For the folks with VIX interest
> Hi Earl,
>
> Nice to see you post a bit here and there...
>
> I'm currently digesting Miner's book/manual (no software) burp!
>
> In your humble opinion--for sanity sake, and I realize it's a personal
> opinion and it always should be viewed with reward/risk in MIND--
>
> Currently--what are your favorite es02m and nq02h time frames using
Miner's
> BASIC trading tenet's of PRICE waves and TIME confluence.
>
> Long or detailed answer certainly not necessary...I respect your time.
>
> Kindest regards,
>
> Steven
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 2:00 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] For the folks with VIX interest
>
>
> > Think of VIX as a warning bell which says "be alert" rather than a
trading
> > signal which says go short or long. Low values say be alert for
weakness,
> > high values for strength. Ditto for breadth and other non-price
indicators
> > as warning bells. Ultimately, one trades price rather than VIX so it is
> the
> > price pattern which must rule.
> >
> > What VIX is saying right now is that the market could be dangerous to
> > downside and price rallies without a major increase in VIX should be
> watched
> > carefully.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Lee Morris" <LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 11:31 AM
> > Subject: RE: [RT] For the folks with VIX interest
> >
> >
> > > thks that is what I wanted to hear as it confirms my game plan. Just
one
> > > more question though, if this is the case then I assume you would not
> > > expect the vix to move much from its current area as we make the
nearby
> > low,
> > > but then to precede lower (any idea how low) as we rally to our upper
> > > target. Is this right and if so how can you use the vix to determine
> when
> > > the final near term top is in or maybe we must just rely on other
> methods.
> > > thks for your thoughts
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Earl Adamy [mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 1:17 PM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] For the folks with VIX interest
> > >
> > >
> > > That the low VIX readings are more critical now than they were earlier
> > i.e.
> > > I think it was unlikely that equities would rally directly from VIX in
> > 20+-
> > > range accompanied by severe breadth divergences in NYSE and a general
> > > pattern of price weakness. I do think we are getting close to a low
here
> > > SP02M around 1132 and expect a rally. Still looking for 1250+ within a
> > month
> > > ... then likely a major decline.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Lee Morris" <LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 11:11 AM
> > > Subject: RE: [RT] For the folks with VIX interest
> > >
> > >
> > > > so what is your current interpretation of the vix
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: Earl Adamy [mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > > > Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 11:21 AM
> > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] For the folks with VIX interest
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Once again Barron's timing is off on the use of VIX. One of
Barron's
> > > > columnists wrote last November that a (then) low VIX reading was
> > > > forecasting
> > > > a sharp sell-off in the market. (At the same time, may RT traders
> were
> > > > calling for the same major sell-off). My own historical research
had
> > > > revealed that when a major bottom was put in place, a low VIX
could
> be
> > > > associated with a modest correction rather than a major sell-off.
I
> > sent
> > > > the
> > > > attached chart to the columnist together with a suggestion that he
> do
> > > more
> > > > complete research before making such statements. The attached
chart
> > > > (current
> > > > data top two charts, 1998 data bottom two charts)was also
published
> to
> > > RT.
> > > > The configuration of the market is now a bit different than it was
> > when
> > > > the
> > > > original piece was published so low VIX readings must be
interpreted
> a
> > > bit
> > > > differently i.e. low VIX readings are likely more critical than
they
> > > were
> > > > in
> > > > the post-911 rally.
> > > >
> > > > The fact is, that VIX must be carefully interpreted in light of
the
> > > major
> > > > price patterns, breadth, and other indicators.
> > > >
> > > > Earl
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 9:26 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] For the folks with VIX interest
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Leave it to Barrons to say not to worry about a low vix...another
> > > example
> > > > of
> > > > ignore the media please. Its a question of probability and ye olde
> > meany
> > > > reversion.
> > > >
> > > > bobr
> > > >
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