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The current $C/($C+$P) exchange ratios individually
and as a composite don't reflect an extreme condition either way right
now. The CBOE is an exception in that its ratio is a contrarily bullish
0.3439. 0.25 would be really bullish. 0.75 would be really
bearish. Overall the 4 major option exchanges (less Alex's exchange) are
kinda neutral looking.
bobr
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Ira Tunik
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 10:25
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] For the folks with VIX
interest
Could it be that the market makers and others know where the
tops and bottoms are in the market. For the VIX, the implied volatility
of the OEX, to be low would mean that selling was driving the options prices
down. Conversly, does someone know that the bottom is in place in order
to come in and buy the options and force the VIX to highs. It is the
buying and selling of options that controls the VIX, so when options buyers
are most optomistic it is a low and when they are most pessemitic it is a
high. Could this be true? Could someone actually know what was
going to happen next. But it would take a lot of people to effect the
VIX, so everybody knows? Ira
Lee Morris wrote:
<FONT
face=Arial>so what is your current
interpretation of the vix
<FONT
size=-1>-----Original Message----- <FONT
face=Tahoma>From: Earl Adamy [<A
href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002
11:21 AM To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <FONT
size=-1>Subject: Re: [RT] For the folks with VIX
interest Once again Barron's timing is
off on the use of VIX. One of Barron's columnists wrote last
November that a (then) low VIX reading was forecasting a
sharp sell-off in the market. (At the same time, may RT traders were
calling for the same major sell-off). My own historical research
had revealed that when a major bottom was put in place, a low
VIX could be associated with a modest correction rather than
a major sell-off. I sent the attached chart to the columnist
together with a suggestion that he do more complete research
before making such statements. The attached chart (current
data top two charts, 1998 data bottom two charts)was also
published to RT. The configuration of the market is now a bit
different than it was when the original piece was published
so low VIX readings must be interpreted a bit differently
i.e. low VIX readings are likely more critical than they were in
the post-911 rally.
The fact is, that VIX must be carefully interpreted in light of the
major price patterns, breadth, and other indicators.
Earl
----- Original Message ----- From: "BobR"
<bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Sent: Wednesday, March
20, 2002 9:26 PM Subject: Re: [RT] For the folks with VIX
interest
Leave it to Barrons to say not to worry about a low vix...another
example of ignore the media please. Its a question of
probability and ye olde meany reversion.
bobr
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