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That the low VIX readings are more critical now than they were earlier i.e.
I think it was unlikely that equities would rally directly from VIX in 20+-
range accompanied by severe breadth divergences in NYSE and a general
pattern of price weakness. I do think we are getting close to a low here
SP02M around 1132 and expect a rally. Still looking for 1250+ within a month
... then likely a major decline.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Lee Morris" <LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 11:11 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] For the folks with VIX interest
> so what is your current interpretation of the vix
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Earl Adamy [mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 11:21 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] For the folks with VIX interest
>
>
> Once again Barron's timing is off on the use of VIX. One of Barron's
> columnists wrote last November that a (then) low VIX reading was
> forecasting
> a sharp sell-off in the market. (At the same time, may RT traders were
> calling for the same major sell-off). My own historical research had
> revealed that when a major bottom was put in place, a low VIX could be
> associated with a modest correction rather than a major sell-off. I sent
> the
> attached chart to the columnist together with a suggestion that he do
more
> complete research before making such statements. The attached chart
> (current
> data top two charts, 1998 data bottom two charts)was also published to
RT.
> The configuration of the market is now a bit different than it was when
> the
> original piece was published so low VIX readings must be interpreted a
bit
> differently i.e. low VIX readings are likely more critical than they
were
> in
> the post-911 rally.
>
> The fact is, that VIX must be carefully interpreted in light of the
major
> price patterns, breadth, and other indicators.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 9:26 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] For the folks with VIX interest
>
>
> Leave it to Barrons to say not to worry about a low vix...another
example
> of
> ignore the media please. Its a question of probability and ye olde meany
> reversion.
>
> bobr
>
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