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This as you say is misleading advertising. But the reason is
important.
Take a semi-random "population", as statistics call it, made up of
those traders using a certain trading application. Statistics say
there will be a few in this trader population who achieve very
exceptional trading results, solely by chance.
Therefore an advertisement focusing on one statistical "outlier" with
very exceptional results says absolutely nothing about the population
of traders who are using, or have used, that product. Yet such
misleading ads seem to common as they relate to certain trading
applications.
The same principal of random events applies to traders. Statistics
suggest that some traders will achieve very exceptional results solely
by chance.
However some of these may then become so convinced of their trading
system or skills that they take on more risk than they should.
Statistics suggest that some of those will eventually "blow-up" on
some spectacular bad trades.
General source: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's web page.
http://pw1.netcom.com/~ntaleb/
Someone has posted a link to his web page, which had material that is
now apparently in his book "Fooled by Randomness". He has posted a
summary of this book:
"This book is about luck perceived and disguised as nonluck (that is,
skills), and randomness perceived and disguised as nonrandomness (that
is, determinism).
It manifests itself in the shape of the lucky fool, defined as a
person who benefited from a disproportionate share of luck but
attributes his success to some other, generally very precise, reason."
Sp perhaps the trader in the CNBC ad is simply a "lucky fool".
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Terry B. Rhodes [mailto:trhodes3@xxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Tuesday, March 05, 2002 10:31 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] Re: Clever ad on TV
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