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2/22/02 MARKET CLOSE
TIMING IS EVERYTHING
MARKET OUTLOOK- Moving down from 1/4/02.
Thirteen of 16 index momentum cycles are moving down.
The expected intermediate correction continues. The next
six month cycle low is expected near March 1st plus or minus a
month or so. There is support for NASDAQ between 1550 and 1650.
A drop below 1716 with positive divergence in indicators would
confirm an intermediate bottom reversal.
Two and a half week short cycles are oversold as of 2/22/02.
INTERMEDIATE TERM BULLISH:
Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates.
Dollar index is up 6.62% from 9/20/01.
S&P500 is 25.54% UNDERVALUED below an estimated 1464 fair value.
November through April seasonality is favorable.
Stock Value Index is 1.864 up from 1.857. Buy greater than 1.03.
Consumer confidence index in Dec was 97.3 and was 93.7 in Nov,
and has been moving up for three months.
S&P500 3 months earnings growth is 5.25%. Low -23.05% on 1/25/02.
CRBI- is up 4.46% from 10/22/01.
Investor sentiment: Two are bullish and one is neutral.
INTERMEDIATE NEUTRAL:
CPI inflation is moving down.
PPI is in deflation.
INTERMEDIATE BEARISH:
Thirteen of 16 index momentum cycles are moving down.
Several other indicators confirm the down move.
NASDAQ McCellan summation index is moving down.
S&P500 went OUT 1/7/02 and is 5.51% BELOW 1153.36(39wk MA).
Beasley dominant market index is NYC-I as of 1/22/02.
All six trading systems are holding money market funds.
The Russell 2000 derived signal RUTRS2B1 went OUT 1/22/02.
Three month ROC of M3 money is at a very low level.
Three month and one year ROC MZM money supply have turned down.
MARKET VALUATION: S&P500 1089.84.
Dn 1.30% from last week.
Down 28.65% from new high 1527.48 on 3/24/00.
Up 13.85% from 957.30 low on 8/31/98.
The S&P500 P/E ratio is 28.15(4 to 20 is range: 1870 to 1997).
S&P500 is 25.54% UNDERVALUED below an estimated 1464 fair value,
relative to historical S&P 500 earnings, P/E and US30 bond yield.
S&P500 annual earnings growth is -27.90%/year. Low -47.28% on 1/25/02.
S&P500 3 months earnings growth is 5.25%. Low -23.05% on 1/25/02.
S&P500 Inflation adjusted real dividend yield is -0.08%.
Prior week was -0.10%. SELL at less than approx.-1.50%.
The real 30 year U.S. Govt. bond yield is 3.81%, last wk was 3.84%.
The historical average, real yield is near 3.00%.
The average 30 year U. S. Govt. historical bond yield expected
is 4.53%, current yield is 5.34%.
CPI, Jan is 1.53% (inflation), Dn from 1.86% in Dec. Low 1.29 4/98.
PPI, Jan is -1.83% (deflation), Dn from -1.05% in Dec. Low -1.83 1/02.
MARKET SENTIMENT: Two are bullish and one is neutral.
CBOE Equity Total Vol. Put/Call Ratio: .74, last week was 0.77.
Market: Bullish > 0.60 and Bearish < 0.30
Consensus(Newsletters/Brokers): 23% Bullish, last week was 23% Bullish
Market: Bullish < 25% and Bearish > 75%
Market Vane(Commodity/Futures): 33% Bullish, last week was 38% Bullish
Market: Bullish < 25% and Bearish > 65%
BEASLEY:OTC-C Neg Env, Score 3/15(IN > 4/15), OUT 02/06/02
NYC-I DOMINANT Pos Env, Score 7/13(IN > 3/13), IN 10/22/01
Total score is 10 of 28, up from 6 last week.
CYCLES 5 WK 10 WK 20 WK 9 Mo
DJ-30 OB-Up,02/22/02 OS-Up,02/11/01 N-Dn,01/15/02 OB-Up,11/07/10
WIL-5 N-Dn,02/21/02 OS-Dn,02/20/02 N-Dn,01/16/02 OB-Dn,02/21/02
RUT-I N-Dn,02/21/02 OS-Dn,01/07/02 N-Dn,01/17/02 OB-Dn,02/22/01
NDX-X OS-Dn,02/20/02 OS-Dn,02/19/02 OS-Dn,01/15/02 OB-Dn,02/06/02
N = Stoch >20 <80, OS = Stoch <20 Buy region, OB = Stoch >80 Sell region
Fidelity Select average 39wksig based on six cycles went out 1/22/02.
SECTOR Averages ranked by percent gain from 1/4/02 high:
Precious 19.2 Mid-Cap -8.6
Zero Bds 4.4 Utilities -9.5
US-Bds 1.9 OTC-C -16.3
Reality 1.3 Hitech -21.8
Currency 0.5 Telecom -22.9
FUNDS: $FIDOEQ6.FAM(609) from FamCreA.ini ranked from 1/4/02 high.
USER 27.4 VWEG -27.7
UNWP 24.9 TVFQ -27.8
BMNI 12.5 ISWC -32.0
BRMX 12.5 TIFQ -32.5
FBRS 5.4 UOPI -36.3
PRICE MOMENTUM TRENDS:
INDEX....MDY/CLOSE......MOMENTUM....OUTLOOK........IMPLICATION....% Chg
S&P500...26 Dn/1089.....Wk Pos......Flat..........OUT,01/15/02....-4.92
OTC-C....24 Dn/1725.....Confirm.....Down..........OUT,01/17/02...-13.16
RUT-I....24 Dn/465......Wk Pos......Flat..........OUT,01/17/02....-3.59
FSAVG*...26 Dn/701......Wk Pos......Flat..........OUT,01/15/02....-3.89
BTFTX....28 Up/55.......Confirm.....Flat...........IN,01/11/02.....0.73
UTY-X**..16 Dn/310......Confirm.....Down..........OUT,01/25/02....-4.46
XAU-I....55 Up/65.......Wk Neg......Down...........IN,12/03/01....21.17
FSESX....13 Up/30.......Confirm.....Up.............IN,02/04/02.....7.74
DXY-Z....40 Up/120......Confirm.....Flat or Up.....IN,12/24/01.....1.03
INTEA....25 Dn/271......Confirm.....Up............OUT,01/16/02....-2.01
FSELX....24 Dn/44.......Confirm.....Flat or Down..OUT,01/17/02...-12.82
FDGRX....26 Dn/47.......Wk Pos......Flat or up....OUT,01/15/02...-10.07
*Fidelity Select family average no GOLD.
** Corrected
SYSTEM............TRADE....C/MDY..HOLD......G/L......ANN/MDD....ONE YEAR
NCALP(RUTRS2B1)...01/23/02...30...VMFXX.....0.2......46.5/9.1.......25.0
SHARP(RUTRS2B1)...01/23/02...30...VMFXX.....0.2......45.6/9.1.......22.9
MDSDF(RUTRS2B1)...01/23/02...30...VMFXX.....0.2......37.6/10.7......22.7
LOSDF(RUTRS2B1)...01/23/02...30...VMFXX.....0.2......30.8/8.0.......22.8
S&P500(RUTRS2B1)..01/23/02...21...VMFXX.....0.18.....10.6/14.6.......2.3
OTC-C(RUTRS2B1)...01/23/02...21...VMFXX.....0.18.....23.1/23.9.......7.5
S&P500 Buy/Hold...02/22/02..252...SP-CP...-13.2......11.7/39.8.....-13.2
OTC-C Buy/Hold....02/22/02..252...OTC-C...-23.4......13.3/71.8.....-23.4
NCALPHA.INI/RUTRS2B1.SIG systems uses $Famlosd.FAM from FamcreB.INI.
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