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>
> 2/15/02 MARKET CLOSE
> TIMING IS EVERYTHING
>
> MARKET OUTLOOK- Moving down from 1/4/02. All four 9 mo.
> index momentum cycles are over bought(in the SELL region), and
> all four 20 week cycle momentum's are moving down. The
> expected intermediate correction continues. The next
> six month cycle low is expected near March 1st plus or minus a
> month or so. There is support for NASDAQ near 1650, a drop of
> 20% from 1/4/02. All four 5 week cycles are moving up.
>
> INTERMEDIATE TERM BULLISH:
> Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates.
> Dollar index is up 5.96% from 9/20/01.
> S&P500 is 23.54% UNDERVALUED below an estimated 1444 fair value.
> November through April seasonality is favorable.
> Stock Value Index is 1.857 up from 1.853. Buy greater than 1.03.
> Consumer confidence index in Dec was 97.3 and was 93.7 in Nov,
> and has been moving up for three months.
> S&P500 3 months earnings growth is 5.41%. Low -23.05% on 1/25/02.
> CRB is up 4.39% from 10/22/01.
> Investor sentiment: Two are bullish and one is neutral.
>
> INTERMEDIATE NEUTRAL:
> Inflation is moving down.
>
> INTERMEDIATE BEARISH:
> All four 9 Mo. index momentum cycles are overbought and all four
> 20 week momentum cycles are moving down.
> Several other indicators confirm the down move.
> NASDAQ McCellan summation index has turned down.
> S&P500 went OUT 1/7/02 and is 4.56% BELOW 1156.92(39wk MA).
> Beasley dominant market index is NYC-I as of 1/22/02.
> All six trading systems are holding money market funds.
> The Russell 2000 derived signal RUTRS2B1 went OUT 1/22/02.
> Three month ROC of M3 money is at a very low level.
> Three month and one year ROC MZM money supply is low.
>
> MARKET VALUATION: S&P500 1104.18.
> Up 0.73% from last week.
> Down 27.71% from new high 1527.48 on 3/24/00.
> Up 15.34% from 957.30 low on 8/31/98.
>
> The S&P500 P/E ratio is 28.47(4 to 20 is range: 1870 to 1997).
>
> S&P500 is 23.54% UNDERVALUED below an estimated 1444 fair value,
> relative to historical S&P 500 earnings, P/E and US30 bond yield.
>
> S&P500 annual earnings growth is -27.78%/year. Low -47.28% on 1/25/02.
>
> S&P500 3 months earnings growth is 5.41%. Low -23.05% on 1/25/02.
>
> S&P500 Inflation adjusted real dividend yield is -0.42%.
> Prior week was -0.41%. SELL at less than approx.-1.50%.
>
> The real 30 year U.S. Govt. bond yield is 3.51%, last wk was 3.51%.
> The historical average, real yield is near 3.00%.
>
> The average 30 year U. S. Govt. historical bond yield expected
> is 4.86%, current yield is 5.37%.
>
> CPI for Dec is 1.86% (inflation), Dn from 2.22% in Nov. Low 1.29 4/98.
> PPI for Jan is -1.83% (deflation), Dn from -1.05% in Dec. Low -1.83 1/02.
>
> MARKET SENTIMENT: Two are bullish and one is neutral.
> CBOE Equity Total Vol. Put/Call Ratio: .77, last week was 0.83.
> Market: Bullish > 0.60 and Bearish < 0.30
> Consensus(Newsletters/Brokers): 23% Bullish, last week was 37% Bullish
> Market: Bullish < 25% and Bearish > 75%
> Market Vane(Commodity/Futures): 38% Bullish, last week was 36% Bullish
> Market: Bullish < 25% and Bearish > 65%
>
> BEASLEY:OTC-C Neg Env, Score 1/15(IN > 4/15), OUT 02/06/02
> NYC-I DOMINANT Neg Env, Score 5/13(IN > 3/13), IN 10/22/01
> Total score is 13 of 28 up from 11 last week.
>
> CYCLES 5 WK 10 WK 20 WK 9 Mo
> DJ-30 OB-Up,02/11/02 OS-Up,02/11/01 N-Dn,01/15/02 OB-Up,11/07/10
> WIL-5 OB-Up,02/08/02 OS-Up,02/12/02 N-Dn,01/16/02 OB-Up,02/15/02
> RUT-I N-Up,02/11/02 OS-Dn,01/07/02 N-Dn,01/17/02 OB-Up,11/08/01
> NDX-X N-Up,01/31/02 OS-Up,02/13/02 N-Dn,01/15/02 OB-Dn,02/06/02
> N = Stoch >20 <80, OS = Stoch <20 Buy region, OB = Stoch >80 Sell region
> Fidelity Select average 39wksig based on six cycles went out 1/22/02.
>
> SECTOR Averages ranked by percent gain from 1/4/02 high:
> Precious 23.4 Japan -7.0
> Zero Bds 4.1 Utilities -8.8
> Emerge 1.9 OTC-C -12.3
> US-Bds 1.8 Hitech -16.4
> Reality 0.7 Telecom -20.4
>
> FUNDS: $FIDOEQ6.FAM(609) from FamCreA.ini ranked from 1/4/02 high.
> USER 33.4 RYMI -22.8
> UNWP 28.7 KING -24.1
> BMNI 10.5 TIFQ -25.1
> BRMX 10.4 ISWC -27.6
> AHER 7.1 UOPI -28.1
>
> PRICE MOMENTUM TRENDS:
> INDEX....MDY/CLOSE......MOMENTUM....OUTLOOK.......IMPLICATION.....% Chg
> S&P500...22 Dn/1104.....Confirm.....Flat.........OUT,01/15/02.....-3.67
> OTC-C....20 Dn/1805.....Confirm.....Flat.........OUT,01/17/02.....-9.10
> RUT-I....20 Dn/469......Confirm.....Flat.........OUT,01/17/02.....-2.72
> FSAVG*...22 Dn/712......Confirm.....Flat.........OUT,01/15/02.....-2.42
> BTFTX....24 Up/55.......Confirm.....Flat..........IN,01/11/02......0.72
> UTY-X....39 Up/314......Confirm.....Flat..........IN,12/19/01.....-2.95
> XAU-I....51 Up/67.......Negative....Down..........IN,12/03/01.....26.26
> FSESX.....9 Up/29.......Confirm.....Flat..........IN,02/04/02......3.23
> DXY-Z....36 Up/118......Confirm.....Down..........IN,12/24/01......0.41
> INTEA....21 Dn/276......Confirm.....Up...........OUT,01/16/02.....-0.10
> FSELX....20 Dn/48.......Confirm.....Flat.........OUT,01/17/02.....-5.33
> FDGRX....22 Dn/49.......Confirm.....Up...........OUT,01/15/02.....-6.86
> *Fidelity Select family average no GOLD.
>
> SYSTEM...........TRADE....C/MDY..HOLD......G/L......ANN/MDD......ONE YEAR
> NCALP(RUTRS2B1)..01/23/02...23...VMFXX.....0.1......46.5/9.1........25.1
> SHARP(RUTRS2B1)..01/23/02...23...VMFXX.....0.1......45.6/9.1........22.6
> MDSDF(RUTRS2B1)..01/23/02...23...VMFXX.....0.1......37.6/10.7.......22.8
> LOSDF(RUTRS2B1)..01/23/02...23...VMFXX.....0.1......30.8/8.0........22.9
> S&P500(RUTRS2B1).01/23/02...17...VMFXX.....0.18.....10.6/14.6........2.3
> OTC-C(RUTRS2B1)..01/23/02...17...VMFXX.....0.18.....23.1/23.9........7.5
> S&P500 Buy/Hold..02/15/02..252...SP-CP...-17.0......11.7/39.8......-17.0
> OTC-C Buy/Hold...02/15/02..252...OTC-C...-29.6......13.3/71.8......-29.6
>
> NCALPHA.INI/RUTRS2B1.SIG systems uses $Famlosd.FAM from FamcreB.INI.
>
>
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