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And if a realtime probability is needed for the OEX
to match the one day look ahead, then here it tiz.
bobr
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
BobR
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, February 14, 2002 9:06
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Where will qqq close
fri
Yes, you totally missed my posting at the
beginning. The target was 1505 to 1515 outlined with the 2/15 vertical
line and the two green probability cones. NDX because my QQQ data from
dtn is screwed. The Heisenberg uncertanty principle forced the switch
from the lower target of 1390 to 1400. It was posted right after Clyde
Lees post of an upper and lower target with the swing machine. For what
its worth, the OEX is within a point of its target for today. The technique
works quite well, a combination of regression and implied
volatility.
bobr
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Ira Tunik
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, February 14, 2002 9:00
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Where will qqq close
fri
Sorry, can't close it a day early, I'll just have to take the
money then. I don't see a specific price for either entry or exit on
your chart or anywhere else. Could I be missing something here?
Ira.
BobR wrote:
Not so fast. If you want to change
Ben's rules and close the test a day early, then you will have to share
with me. <FONT
size=-1>bobr
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Ira Tunik
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, February 14, 2002
8:34 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Where will qqq
close fri This was posted on Monday the 11th. So there
is no after the fact guess work, line projections, or other things to
confuse the matter. The target for this cycle has been reached. Do
I win the prize or just take my money and say thank you very much as
today's close means very little to me.
Ira Tunik wrote:
There seems to be a great deal of guessing
going on about where the QQQ will be and when. Here is my matrix
for the QQQ the Probabilities are that once an EP is hit there is an
80% probability of reaching PO1, a 70% probability of reaching PO2 and
a 60% probability of reaching the target for that trading cycle.
Each is specific. no guessing as to whether this or that line will
hold. The stops are specific also to take care of that 20% risk
factor. Each of the trading cycles is still active and the targets
reached for each cycle is noted. Your current location is also
noted. The numbers on the left are for the down cycles and those
on the right ar for the up cycles. EP=entry price.
PO=price objective. Target=price target for that cycle. Each Price
Objective first acts as resistance and as support. A cycle is active
until either the target is reached or the stop is hit. One or
the other will void the cycle. So QQQ can reach the target of
the current cycle and still be nothing more then a retracement of the
down legs. Contra trend trades usually end at PO1. A price of
35.85 will void this up move we are in and once again restart the down
cycles. Hope that this isn't too confusing, I am giving the
prices to expect but no dates as they may come before Friday.
This is expiration week and you can get some funny price movement.
BobR wrote:
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