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Neal,
Thank you for your well reasoned, polite and considered
reply. A nice one in the public
forum. Suggestive of open to learning and allowing for
possibility of error.
A pleasure to converse with you, and to learn from you.
At 15:51 13/02/02 +0000, you wrote:
>So you are partly correct, I do
not value my own experience or opinions
>for trend following techniques - just the experience and wisdom of
others
>who regularly achieve much in that difficult field of trading -
wisdom
>that I shared with the group.
Ric,
If that's the case, it would be more honest of you to present your
writing
as gathered opinions of others.
I agree.
But I did just as you asked - as this quote from the original Strategies
for Trailing Stop-Losses email of 12th Feb clearly suggests:
"Based on the experience of traders coached, the two of the most
successful techniques for trailing stop-losses appear to
include:
- percentage
of move,
- trend-reflection."
It does not use your words, but it is clearly the opinion of
others. The later text reinforces this.
You just missed the preamble "Based on the experience of traders
coached" perhaps.
Unlike yours, many hostile emails are just exercises in blowing off
steam, being self-righteous, and looking for crowd support, like buying
after a big rise and hoping others will buy even
higher. A sort of "Never mind the evidence, who
will agree with me?"
Now what does that tell about:
their
likely trading styles?
- probably
crowd oriented so probably trend-followers or similar,
often
buying near the top/selling near the bottom,
their
likely success rates?
- well
trend following is one of the hardest strategies, so not so
good
even if not a crowd victim,
blowout
probabilities?
- emotions
so easily invoked with some strength, leading to loss of
vision
and reason, suggests a good chance of being an accident
waiting
to happen.
Unfortunately I have seen it too many times before, with new clients
contacting me in a panic, and having to help pick up the
pieces. The good news is none of my clients have
managed to blowout twice - so it is potentially curable using standard
techniques, and mostly suggesting approaches that reduce the likelihood
of the catalytic events recurring or in one extreme case to stop all
trading.
From my coaching experience, the single most important personality trait
that is positively correlated with failure seems to be the tendency to
easily and regularly explode emotionally and not to take responsibility
for any related errors in perception.
The equation seems to be: no personal responsibility taken, little or no
learning takes place, repeat mistake over and over again.
It also seems to go thus: have strong emotion; not see environment
clearly; close down rational processing; fail in almost any endeavour; if
your timing is poor sometimes fail catastrophically.
Optionally, repeat forever.
Unconditional regards, Ric.
www.traderscalm.com
P.S.
The single personality trait correlated with success? That would be summed up by the person who says, "That's interesting, tell me more - by the way, I do this.".
Similar in fact to one of your previous emails.
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