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> TIMING IS EVERYTHING
>
> MARKET OUTLOOK- Moving down from 1/4/02. All four 9 mo.
> index momentum cycles are over bought(in the SELL region), and
> all eight 10 and 20 week cycle momentums are moving down. The
> expected intermediate correction continues. The next
> six month cycle low is expected near March 1st plus or minus a
> month or so. There is support for NASDAQ near 1650, a drop of
> 20% from 1/4/02.
>
> INTERMEDIATE TERM BULLISH:
> Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates.
> Dollar index is up 6.54% from 9/20/01.
> S&P500 is 19.64% UNDERVALUED below an estimated 1364 fair value.
> November through April seasonality is favorable.
> Stock Value Index is 1.853 up from 1.837. Buy greater than 1.03.
> Consumer confidence index in Dec was 97.3 and was 93.7 in Nov,
> and has been moving up for three months.
> S&P500 3 months earnings growth is 5.82%. Last week was 6.77%.
> CRBI- is up 4.49% from 10/22/01.
>
> INTERMEDIATE NEUTRAL:
> Inflation is moving down.
> Investor sentiment: One is bullish and two are neutral.
>
> INTERMEDIATE BEARISH:
> All four 9 Mo. index momentum cycles are overbought and all eight
> 10 and 20 week momentum cycles are moving down.
> Several other indicators confirm the down move.
> NASDAQ McCellan summation index has turned down.
> S&P500 went OUT 1/7/02 and is 5.55% BELOW 1160.65(39wk MA).
> Beasley dominant market index is NYC-I as of 1/22/02.
> All six trading systems are holding money market funds.
> The Russell 2000 derived signal RUTRS2B1 went OUT 1/22/02.
> Three month ROC of M3 money is at a very low level.
> Three month and one year ROC MZM money supply is low.
>
> MARKET VALUATION: S&P500 1096.22.
> Down 2.32% from last week.
> Down 28.23% from new high 1527.48 on 3/24/00.
> Up 14.51% from 957.30 low on 8/31/98.
>
> The S&P500 P/E ratio is 28.16(4 to 20 is range: 1870 to 1997).
>
> S&P500 is 19.64% UNDERVALUED below an estimated 1364 fair value.
>
> S&P500 annual earnings growth is -27.50%/year. Last week was -26.84%.
>
> S&P500 3 months earnings growth is 5.82%. Last week was 6.77%.
>
> S&P500 Inflation adjusted real dividend yield is -0.41%.
> Prior week was -0.45%. SELL at less than approx.-1.50%.
>
> The real 30 year U.S. Govt. bond yield is 3.51%, last wk was 3.54%.
> The historical average, real yield is near 3.00%.
>
> The average 30 year U. S. Govt. historical bond yield expected
> is 4.86%, current yield is 5.37%.
>
> CPI for Dec is 1.86% (inflation), Dn from 2.22% in Nov. Low 1.29 4/98.
> PPI for Dec is -1.05% (inflation), Dn from 0.15% in Nov. Low -1.76 3/98.
>
> MARKET SENTIMENT: One is bullish and two are neutral.
> CBOE Equity Total Vol. Put/Call Ratio: .83, last week was 0.71.
> Market: Bullish > 0.60 and Bearish < 0.30
> Consensus(Newsletters/Brokers): 37% Bullish, last week was 47% Bullish
> Market: Bullish < 25% and Bearish > 75%
> Market Vane(Commodity/Futures): 36% Bullish, last week was 40% Bullish
> Market: Bullish < 25% and Bearish > 65%
>
> BEASLEY:OTC-C Neg Env, Score 3/15(IN > 4/15), OUT 02/06/02
> NYC-I DOMINANT Pos Env, Score 8/13(IN > 3/13), IN 10/22/01
> Total score is 13 of 28 up from 11 last week.
>
> CYCLES 5 WK 10 WK 20 WK 9 Mo
> DJ-30 N-Dn,02/06/02 OS-Dn,01/11/01 N-Dn,01/15/02 OB-Up,11/07/10
> WIL-5 OS-Up,02/08/02 OS-Dn,01/14/02 N-Dn,01/16/02 OB-Up,10/31/01
> RUT-I OS-Dn,02/04/02 OS-Dn,01/07/02 OB-Dn,01/17/02 OB-Up,11/08/01
> NDX-X OS-Dn,01/31/02 OS-Dn,01/14/02 N-Dn,01/15/02 OB-Dn,02/06/02
> N = Stoch >20 <80, OS = Stoch <20 Buy region, OB = Stoch >80 Sell region
> Fidelity Select average 39wksig based on six cycles went out 1/22/02.
>
> SECTOR Averages ranked by percent gain from 1/4/02 high:
> Precious 22.7 Utilities -8.7
> Zero Bds 3.9 Japan -10.0
> US Bds 1.7 OTC-C -11.7
> Vmfxx 0.2 Hitech -15.2
> Currency 0.1 Telecom -17.7
> FUNDS: $FIDOEQ6.FAM(609) from FamCreA.ini ranked from 1/4/02 high.
> USER 31.1 MSCE -19.5
> UNWP 29.8 KING -21.8
> BMNI 11.1 TIFQ -22.6
> BRMX 11.0 ISWC -23.1
> FBRS 4.5 UOPI -26.4
>
> PRICE MOMENTUM TRENDS:
> INDEX...MDY/CLOSE......MOMENTUM....EXPECTATION....IMPLICATION.....% Chg
> S&P500..17 Dn/1096.....Confirm.....Down..........OUT,01/15/02.....-4.36
> OTC-C...15 Dn/1819.....Confirm.....Down..........OUT,01/17/02.....-8.41
> RUT-I...15 Dn/467......Confirm.....Down..........OUT,01/17/02.....-3.26
> FSAVG*..17 Dn/707......Confirm.....Down..........OUT,01/15/02.....-3.15
> BTFTX...19 Up/55.......Confirm.....Flat...........IN,01/11/02......0.84
> UTY-X....8 Dn/315......Confirm.....Down...........IN,12/19/01.....-1.14
> XAU-I...46 Up/68.......Confirm.....Flat...........IN,12/03/01.....27.84
> FSESX...16 Dn/28.......Confirm.....Flat..........OUT,01/11/02......2.99
> DXY-Z...31 Up/119......Confirm.....Flat...........IN,12/24/01......0.96
> INTEA...16 Dn/270......Confirm.....Down..........OUT,01/16/02.....-2.26
> FSELX...15 Dn/47.......Confirm.....Down..........OUT,01/17/02.....-7.01
> FDGRX...17 Dn/49.......Confirm.....Down..........OUT,01/15/02.....-7.72
> *Fidelity Select family average no GOLD.
>
> SYSTEM...........TRADE....C/MDY..HOLD......G/L......ANN/MDD......ONE YEAR
> NCALP(RUTRS2B1)..01/23/02...16...VMFXX.....0.1......46.52/9.12......24.8
> SHARP(RUTRS2B1)..01/23/02...16...VMFXX.....0.1......45.55/9.12......22.9
> MDSDF(RUTRS2B1)..01/23/02...16...VMFXX.....0.1......37.64/10.69.....22.5
> LOSDF(RUTRS2B1)..01/23/02...16...VMFXX.....0.1......30.80/7.95......22.8
> S&P500(RUTRS2B1).01/23/02...12...VMFXX.....0.18.....10.6/14.6........0.9
> OTC-C(RUTRS2B1)..01/23/02...12...VMFXX.....0.18.....23.1/23.9........3.6
> S&P500 Buy/Hold..02/08/02..252...SP-CP...-17.9......11.7/39.8......-17.9
> OTC-C Buy/Hold...02/08/02..252...OTC-C...-29.3......13.3/71.8......-29.3
>
> NCALPHA.INI/RUTRS2B1.SIG systems uses $Famlosd.FAM from FamcreB.INI.
>
>
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