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Perhaps that works two out of three times, not so sure about 3 out of 3
expirations though. I recall some March expirations that had large put open
interest and it was accompanied by a large downdraft in stock prices. The
contrary notion did not work.
----- Original Message -----
From: "profitok" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, January 24, 2002 8:35 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Option Sentiment Indicator
> Alex
>
> I have lost $500000 between 1973 and 1987 in the option game,,
> and FINALLY figured out how to decide at what spice an index or stock
> will close on expiration day
> it is very simple at that is what you want reported hourly
> the open interest for example for the qqq Feb. 38 put compare to the
> open interest of the 38 call
> the same for 39 and 40
> and same for 37 36 and 35
> (a total of 5 above current price and 5 under current price)
> what you will see is that when put open interest is 5 times and above of
> the call open interest that price CAN be broken intra day but not on a
> closing bases,,
> a 7 put to 1 call ratio would be VERY unlikely to have penetrated
> intra day
> and 10 and above I would bet my home on it to not be traded under,,
> this would be very useful as one would know the MAJOR support and
> resistance and sell calls when we get close to resistance or buy puts
> any questions?
> nice day
> Ben
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jacobson, Alex" <AJacobson@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, January 24, 2002 10:32 AM
> Subject: [RT] Option Sentiment Indicator
>
>
> > Hey list .. I'd like your input on a proposed new sentiment indicator.
> >
> > Here at the ISE all of our orderflow is electronic .... retail,
> > institutional, professional ... it's all electronic. What we are
thinking
> > about doing is taking periodic snapshots (maybe every 10 seconds) of
our
> > completed orderflow. Orders to buy calls or sell puts would be
considered
> > bullish and orders to buy puts and sell calls would be considered
bearish.
> > The data may or may not be weighted by the size of the orders .. too
early
> > to tell. Some folks have suggested weighting the data based on most
> active
> > issues as well.
> >
> > In effect if in the 10 second window we completed 500 bullish orders and
> 400
> > bearish orders the indicator would be 1.25 .... again scale issues are
yet
> > to be worked out. Zero numbers would a problem and we are working out
> some
> > thoughts on that. It has never occurred, but it is not impossible.
> >
> > In effect this would create a pseudo tiki type indicator based on option
> > orders completed ....... tiki has some advantages because of market cap
> > issues.
> >
> > I'd appreciate hearing your comments.
> >
> > Alex Jacobson
> > Vice President Business Development
> > I S E
> > 212 897 8125
> > 212 425 4926 (FAX)
> > 877 7209918 (SKYPAGE)
> > ajacobson@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
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