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--- In gannsghost@xxxx, "topos8" <topos8@xxxx> wrote:
AS I write this the S&P futures are trading at 1137.50 and the bonds
closed near 102-31.
In my last bond post (GG#8608, January 10, 2002) I said that I
expected a downward reaction in the bonds from the 103-06 level of no
more than 48 ticks.
This was dead wrong and illustrates the perils of predicting (and
trading) reactions against the intermediate term trend direction.
Right now it looks like the bonds will hold support at 102-24 and
begin the final upleg to an intermediate term top a bit above 105.
The 105-08 level looks like a good target but I expect to have to
adjust this when the market gets closer to that level. The
corresponding target in the 10 year notes is 107-28.
>From these levels I would expect both markets to begin an extended
downtrend which will carry both below the December low points.
In GG #8405 (January 2, 2002),written when the March S&P was at 1154,
I said that the market should rally to 1185 and that the worst we
would see after that would be a break to 1140. In the event we only
got up to 1178.50. Falling short of the upside target lowered the
1140 downside target to 1133.50. It now looks like the market has
held support there ( but did break it by 9 points, far more that is
normal in these situations). If I'm reading things correctly we
should now begin an upmove to 1195 or higher. Even if I am wrong
about this the worst I can now calculate on the downside is 1108.
In any case the intermediate term trend is still upward and will
probably carry the S&P's into the highh 1200's before it is complete.
Carl
--- End forwarded message ---
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