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Jeffery (and Chris),
Although I cannot do quarterly JY cash currency, I was playing around with
the AGET monthly "inverted futures" to see if it agreed with your counts (it
will likely zero in on a different time frame, normally a 300 bar count).
It shows a 1-2-3-4-5 wave count down (first chart) which is the really
internal count of your large wave 3 down (I added your longer term wave
counts in red).
As to whether the subsequent move from the wave 3 is (a) a wave 4 that is
unfolding in an ABC pattern or (b) whether wave 4 is in, and prices are in
the early stages of a 1-2 pattern down, there are some hints that might help
build a strategy?
Notice the AGET monthly chart (after the 5 wave sequence down) starts
counting out a new 1-2-3-4 sequence up. Note the PTI of 5 indicates it
basically does not like the pattern. It is saying that there is a low
probability for that sequence, that a "normal wave 5" up will occur. It is
projecting at best "a double top" compared to the prior peak and /or a
failed 5th wave (meaning a new high is not made, failing somewhere
beforehand), which is the first hint I noticed.
Dropping to a weekly (second chart) allows one to view the sequence from the
lows (wave 3 on the monthly) to see if it might offer up some clues. I
added the possible internal counts if this was a big wave 4 unfolding in an
ABC pattern (ala wave A is either a 3 or 5 wave pattern, wave B is a three
pattern, and wave C a five wave pattern).
Note the last rise, which is the the pattern that is being debated as to
whether it is a either a wave C:4 or a wave 2 ( in which case wave B:4 is
really wave 1 in a down sequence and this is a wave 2 rally).
First there is a "very definite 5 wave sequence" to it and the wave 3 ends
right in the 1.618 to 2.618 expansion of wave 1 added to the wave 2 bottom
(also not shown was wave 4 ended just over a normal .382 retracement) with
the ellipse tool catching the low exactly. I have shown the "normal wave 5
target range" expansions and it would indicate that the wave 5 will fall
likely short of the prior peak of 147 (on the futures)?
The question is why would the 5 wave sequence fall short of making a new
high which normally occurs in an wave 4 A-B-C swing expansion pattern?
Could it be "a wedge formation" will likely unfold here (wave C:4 will be
lower than wave A:4)?
Then again if this is a wave 2, it will be relabeled into a big A-B-C (wave
3 becomes A, wave 4 becomes B and wave 5 becomes C))? Looking at swing
targets you would have the same range of 130 (.618) to 140 (1.0) on the
futures.
My point is both the wave 2 or wave C:4 could be right, at least initially
and it really does not matter what it is from a trading pespective perhaps
(as I have frequently said the key is to be on the right side of the trade
and I have found EW frequently gets one there, even if counts change).
The best guess here is prices will reach the wave 5 target range on the
weekly at which time prices will reverse. Whether it is a wave 2 or a wave
C:4 (completing a wedge), one will want to sell that break after a minor
wave 4:5 occurs there (what I often call "the fooler", use the daily to
identify it).
Dropping down to a daily (third chart) will allow one to analyze just the
internal 5 wave count of just the wave 5 rise on the weekly. It will likely
give a good sell signal once 5 waves are complete (and if long like you
Jeffery an exit point). Right now it is showing you are in a wave 3 there
(so the wave 4 fooler = minor 4:5 weekly) is yet to come.
Anyway that is my 2 1/2 cents worth . . . good luck in your currency trade
(note charts are for futures which will vary slightly from the cash
currency).
don ewers
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Jeffrey Harteam
> Sent: Sunday, December 09, 2001 8:49 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: USDJPY - Quarterly
>
>
> Greetings All:
>
> Here is my updated wave counts of the spot USDJPY chart in the quarterly
> timeframe. Looking at the long-term chart, at this point in time, we are
> either in the process of resolving the wave II (Yellow) of the Cycle
Degree
> or alternatively, we are trying to play out a wave C (Yellow) (not shown)
of
> the Cycle Degree. From a trading perspective, the decisive break of
> 06/29/2001 high of 126.80 will trigger the continuation of the up rise of
> the USDJPY to the +140.00- levels. Suffice to point out that whichever
> counts we are favoring at this moment; the Spot USDJPY still has adequate
> rooms to push for higher territories. Regards
>
> Have a good one
> Jeff Harteam
> Hong Kong
>
>
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