|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Yeah....the market was in the DANGER ZONE or worse for almost 3 YEARS !!!
What's to keep it from moving out of the OPPORTUNITY ZONE for the next 3
years ?
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Glen Wallace [mailto:gcwallace@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 10:20 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] S&P 500 TBill/EarningsYield
>
>
> Be careful. The market may be undervalued based on historical
> earnings, but not on forecast earnings.
>
> I think one of the reasons for the apparent bullish bias in the EYR
> line right now is that S&P Earnings lag TBill yield and S&P Close
> by several months. TBill Yield and S&P Close are current figures,
> while S&P Earnings is historical information. As the poor earnings
> environment is reflected more and more in the S&P Earnings figure
> (ie. the denominator in your EYR formula will decline), the EYR
> line will tend to return to the centre line. A more accurate
> representation would be obtained by using forecast earnings,
> which presumably is one factor investors use in determining a
> "fair" S&P value.
>
> It would be interesting to recalculate the figures by shifting S&P
> Earnings backward by 6 or 12 months to simulate forecast earnings.
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 6:42 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] S&P 500 TBill/EarningsYield
>
> > Yes, there is no question that the graphic indicates that the market is
> > grossly undervalued. My major problem with the graphic is that history
> > begins in 1942 and thus does not include history for what I
> consider to be a
> > comparable period of extreme valuations ... the 1920's. The
> other problem is
> > the channel which has a strong bull market bias. Thus, I think that the
> > chart is better at identifying extreme overvaluation than extreme
> > undervaluation. Note the addition of the blue line at the bottom of the
> > chart.
> >
> > I believe that absent some historically low PE's and dividend
> ratios, one
> > needs to at least wait for the ratio to settle down in the
> lower end of the
> > range.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Rakesh Sahgal" <rakeshsahgal@xxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 7:32 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] S&P 500 TBill/EarningsYield
> >
> > > Earl,
> > >
> > > Going by the graphic can one safely assume, current market is grossly
> > > oversold/undervalued? Or as you had mentioned in one of your
> earlier posts
> > > the quality of reported earnings makes it necessary that this
> opportunity
> > > be viewed with caution?
> > >
> > > Rakesh
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > At 07:18 AM 12/11/01 -0700, you wrote:
> > > >Someone here requested an update.
> > > >
> > > >Earl
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Promise to Quit
Nicotrol will help
http://us.click.yahoo.com/5vN8tD/AqSDAA/ySSFAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|