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Don, thanks for your response. As always, you make good sense. However, I have one
comment about the OSC. A seasoned trader once made a comment that I'll never forget.
His said OSC and every other such indicator is only a derivative of price and volume,
and being such, they aren't as accurate as analyzing price and volume itself. So,
looking back at the oscillator on the weekly csco chart you'll see that it follows the
stock price, but it doesn't have the exact amplitude. So, to me, it has no value. Also,
I don't see any stress on volume in AGET. To me, volume is the fuel that propels the
car. You can have 1,000 horsepower under the hood, but without gas, the car won't run.
I would also like to thank you for wanting to follow-up with AGET historic forecasts
for weekly csco. That would really be interesting. As for the stock I mentioned, it was
CyberCare (cybr). I believe we were looking at it around 8/2000.
Ralph Volpe
Don Ewers wrote:
> Hi Ralph,
> All I can say is it has been a good tool for me to use and since I am not
> selling anything here (and have no connection with them), I have nothing to
> gain by posting AGET things to the list. My posts normally discuss the
> current pattern/counts and offer upwhat they are saying. If they don't mean
> anything to you or you don't understand the value, then simply hit the
> delete key?
>
> If one has not spent the time to learn AGET, learned to understand all of
> the "tricks" of the program, adjust ones thinking to the possible changes in
> patterns as they unfold, then yes it could be considered tea leaves, as
> anything else could, nothing is 100% , there is no holy grail. Attending "a
> few seminars" is hardly the time needed to understand the program, one needs
> to use it for some time first. My experience has been over 6 years, it it
> would seem unlikely that I would be using something for that period of time
> if it did not provide predictive value that I have profited from?
>
> My point is, AGET if used properly normally gets one on the "right side of
> the trade" more often than not, after that your trading skills and
> discipline need to take over. Will a person be stopped if it is wrong and a
> count changes dramatically, yes, but that change of count I find keeps me
> well away from the "I hope syndrone", since in reality it tells me it was
> wrong and here is what now looks right. Some people cannot accept the fact
> things change. Initially I was one until a guy at AGET (Andy Bushak)
> pointed out to me (more than once) that there are some count changes that
> don't make any difference you are still on the right side of the trade. You
> just adjust profit and stop targets on them. It is the dramatic ones that
> do make the diffence and need to be heeded.
>
> As far as the oscillators I beg to disagree, they are one of the most
> valuable tools in my work as to which counts to use (normal, short or long
> term) and the foundation of the program, so your familiarity with AGET is
> showing there perhaps?
>
> That said, AGET does have the ability to go back in time and show exactly
> what it showed on any given date so I will look at what it showed as you
> have asked and post the chart on CSCO. I know I sold CSCO in my kids
> accounts at 60 3/4 depite them telling me they wanted to stay in it at the
> time and that they was in it for the long haul. AGET told me it was likely
> all over at the time or nearing an end. It did go higher afterwards I would
> have to admit. I will post a chart to see what it said, truth be known as
> it were.
>
> What was the other stock your friend asked about and the date roughly the
> question was asked, I will see if I have the data on it also.
> don ewers
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