|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hi Ralph,
All I can say is it has been a good tool for me to use and since I am not
selling anything here (and have no connection with them), I have nothing to
gain by posting AGET things to the list. My posts normally discuss the
current pattern/counts and offer upwhat they are saying. If they don't mean
anything to you or you don't understand the value, then simply hit the
delete key?
If one has not spent the time to learn AGET, learned to understand all of
the "tricks" of the program, adjust ones thinking to the possible changes in
patterns as they unfold, then yes it could be considered tea leaves, as
anything else could, nothing is 100% , there is no holy grail. Attending "a
few seminars" is hardly the time needed to understand the program, one needs
to use it for some time first. My experience has been over 6 years, it it
would seem unlikely that I would be using something for that period of time
if it did not provide predictive value that I have profited from?
My point is, AGET if used properly normally gets one on the "right side of
the trade" more often than not, after that your trading skills and
discipline need to take over. Will a person be stopped if it is wrong and a
count changes dramatically, yes, but that change of count I find keeps me
well away from the "I hope syndrone", since in reality it tells me it was
wrong and here is what now looks right. Some people cannot accept the fact
things change. Initially I was one until a guy at AGET (Andy Bushak)
pointed out to me (more than once) that there are some count changes that
don't make any difference you are still on the right side of the trade. You
just adjust profit and stop targets on them. It is the dramatic ones that
do make the diffence and need to be heeded.
As far as the oscillators I beg to disagree, they are one of the most
valuable tools in my work as to which counts to use (normal, short or long
term) and the foundation of the program, so your familiarity with AGET is
showing there perhaps?
That said, AGET does have the ability to go back in time and show exactly
what it showed on any given date so I will look at what it showed as you
have asked and post the chart on CSCO. I know I sold CSCO in my kids
accounts at 60 3/4 depite them telling me they wanted to stay in it at the
time and that they was in it for the long haul. AGET told me it was likely
all over at the time or nearing an end. It did go higher afterwards I would
have to admit. I will post a chart to see what it said, truth be known as
it were.
What was the other stock your friend asked about and the date roughly the
question was asked, I will see if I have the data on it also.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ralph Volpe" <rjv@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, November 26, 2001 11:03 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] elliot-wave chart for csco
> Don, I looked at the AGET chart for csco and that mumbo jumbo of Elliot
counts, as so
> marked, has no meaning. I'm sorry to be negative, but all it looks like to
me is an
> afterthought to make sense out of random pattern -- no different than
trying to read
> tea leaves. Also, the OSC at the bottom also seems to offer no predictable
outcome. I
> would like to ascertain from AGET users is whether the system has merit.
In other
> words, did AGET give any indication of the initial csco drop in early 2000
or when it
> really started to tank in late 2000; and, did it get close to predicting
the ensuing
> carnage? The csco chart that you had attached also showed some slash lines
in blue,
> green and red that are predicting the next possible outcome. If you were
to look back
> at previous drawings of those lines, how often has AGET been correct in
drawing those
> lines?
>
> I went to a few AGET seminars and in the last one I brought a friend who
wasn't too
> diplomatic and kept pressing a representative to predict what might happen
to a stock
> she owned. If you ever wanted to see a sales rep. squirm, you should have
been there.
> However, AGET was showing a modest gain for the stock we were examining,
but the stock
> now in the sewer. So, if you can give your input on the performance of
AGET, I would
> appreciate it -- but be careful, there are libel laws ;-).
>
> Ralph Volpe
>
> Don Ewers wrote:
>
> > Lenny,
> > I agree with your weekly count.
> >
> > Using AGET weekly charts, after "parobolic" moves, will almost always
> > initially label the correction downward wave 3 due to the depth of the
5/35
> > oscillator (likely on the way up also if the 5/35 never reaches zero).
It
> > makes sense to look at them using the 5/17 oscillator that shows the
> > internal count of these severe pullbacks, so thanks for the suggestion.
> >
> > If one goes to the current daily chart this gives a 1-2-3 count up off
the
> > bottom so "TV" a wave 4 pullback is likely at some point here (this
whole
> > sequence may be relabeled a 1-2 eventually if the stock continues to
move
> > higher thereafter)? If one looks back to April-June another 1-2-3-4
count
> > up occurred off the low, but since there was no "credible" minor wave 4"
at
> > that point, that rally was assumed to be just that, and that lower minor
> > wave 5 lows would follow, (which in fact has now occured) which stresses
why
> > I like to look for the "good" minor wave 4 before assuming a 5 wave
sequence
> > is complete (the first one is frequently a fake out and only a minor
wave 4
> > of wave 5)? I think this is the part that can frustrate early users of
the
> > software until they "read between the lines at times" (ie the imfamous
count
> > change).
> >
> > Lenny, I have showed both of the retracements (normal fib from wave 2
and
> > from wave 1) you mentioned. I have found just the wave 3 retracement
quite
> > accurate though and only use the full wave 1- wave 3 retracements if the
> > wave 4 red channel is exceeded, since wave 4 should be correcting only
wave
> > 3 only (wave 1 was corrected by wave 2). I see some confluence, so lets
see
> > how it works out (assuming CSCO recent high starts a correction here).
> > don ewers
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Need new boots for winter? Looking for a perfect gift for your shoe loving friends?
Zappos.com is the perfect fit for all your shoe needs!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/3wM6yD/QrSDAA/ySSFAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|