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FWIW, I'm showing an 83% probability of a reversal in the SPX and the Qs. Charts
at
http://users.erols.com/cnedgo/hrsk96.10313.7142/fcst108.htm
gobble, gobble :)
Gary Funck wrote:
> First the chart: there a few bits of info. that support the case for Q's
> having topped out, at least temporarily, here: (1) the NDX/SPX ratio hits
> resistance, and (2) the A/D has been tracking sideways while the NDX climbs.
> Unfortunately, both the long and short trades look 50/50.
>
> The following (1999) Thanksgiving story is from the Daily Reckoning:
> http://www.dailyreckoning.com.
>
> The Daily Reckoning Presents: A DR Classique, first run
> November 25, 1999
>
> THANKSGIVING, ANNO 1999
> by Bill Bonner
>
> I turned to my trusty assistant...Beirne White...this
> morning.
>
> "Beirne," I said gravely, "tell me about Thanksgiving in
> Mississippi."
>
> Beirne proceeded to tell me about a Mississippi bluesman
> named "Son" House, who lived to be 102 by doing what
> bluesmen tended to do...chasing bad luck, bad liquor,
> and bad women.
>
> "What does that have to do with Thanksgiving?"
>
> "Nothing," he replied...whereupon he drew on the
> resources generously provided by Britannica.com,
> formerly of Chicago, lately of cyber space, to get me
> the research I requested.
>
> Beirne hails from Mississippi. And while Mississippians
> will sit down with the rest of the nation...and tuck
> into their turkeys with equal relish...perhaps only
> substituting Bourbon Pecan pie for the sweet potato or
> pumpkin pie enjoyed in Maryland...somewhere deep in the
> most primitive part of his medulla oblongata, the part
> of the brain where race memories are stored, Beirne
> resists Thanksgiving. It is, after all, a Yankee
> holiday.
>
> In the middle of the war between the states, both sides
> proclaimed days of "thanksgiving," following the
> progress of the war as we now follow the progress of the
> stock market. After each of the first and second battles
> of Bull Run, which sent the Yankees fleeing back to
> Washington, the Confederates proclaimed days of
> thanksgiving.
>
> But it was Lincoln's day that stuck. Declared after the
> battle of Gettysburg - the last great Napoleonic charge
> of military history - Thanksgiving was set for the third
> Thursday in the month of November, commemorating the
> Northern victory.
>
> Beirne doesn't say so...but this fact must stick in his
> craw.
>
> It doesn't help that the original celebration took place
> in Massachusetts. And that it was hosted by a dour bunch
> of Puritans, who probably wouldn't have been able to
> enjoy a good dinner if their lives depended on it. But
> they certainly had a lot to be thankful for. As the Wall
> Street Journal reminds us annually, they nearly
> exterminated themselves in typical Yankee fashion - by
> wanting to boss each other around. They had arrived in
> Massachusetts by accident and bad seamanship, intending
> to settle in the more hospitable climate of Virginia,
> which had been colonized more than 10 years before. Once
> in Massachusetts they proceeded to set up such a
> miserable community that surely most of them, had they
> lived, would have longed to return to England. The
> Soviets could have learned from their example and spared
> themselves 70 years of misery. Only after the "witch
> burners and infant damners" abandoned their communal
> form of organization, and allowed people to work for
> themselves, did the colony have a prayer of survival.
>
> But victors write the history books. And now this
> precarious celebration by a feeble group of religious
> zealots has turned into the most American holiday.
>
> After Appomattox, the South was helpless. Its natural
> leaders, the plantation aristocrats, were either dead,
> bankrupted and/or discredited. Many of them went to
> Northern cities, like New York or Baltimore, where,
> Mencken tells us, they "arrived with no baggage save
> good manners and empty bellies." They enriched the
> North. But back home, they were sorely missed. "First
> the carpetbaggers," says Mencken, "ravaged the
> land...and then it fell into the hands of the native
> white trash..." Scars of war can take a long time to
> heal. But 130 years later, the South is the most
> economically and culturally robust part of the nation.
>
> Thanksgiving was declared a national holiday in 1931.
> Through the Depression, and then WWII, Thanksgiving grew
> in importance. In a country where roots meant almost
> nothing, where people were ready to pick up and move at
> the drop of a hat, where there were huge differences in
> what people thought and how they lived, Thanksgiving
> served to provide a unified, national myth...most
> popularly expressed in Norman Rockwell's Thanksgiving
> cover for the Saturday Evening Post.
>
> Roots mean more in Mississippi than they do in
> California. "No man is himself," said Oxford,
> Mississippi's most celebrated alcoholic, "he is the sum
> of his past." Unlike so many other American writers of
> the 20th century, Faulkner stayed home. The forward to
> the "encyclopedia of southern culture" has a passage
> from Faulkner, saying: "Tell about the South. What's it
> like there. What do they do there. Why do they live
> there. Why do they live at all."
>
> Even in Faulkner's Mississippi...Thanksgiving is now
> part of everyone. Where Beirne goes...it goes too. And
> so, all over the world, Americans, gathering in small
> groups, like pilgrims on distant shores, celebrate the
> holiday (if not on the actual day...perhaps the weekend
> before or following...as we do.)
>
> Art Buchwald has translated the Thanksgiving story for
> the French, deftly turning Captain Miles Standish into
> Le Capitaine Kilometre Deboutish. But no one has
> refashioned American Thanksgiving recipes for the metric
> measuring cups and local ingredients here in France.
> Americans have to use their yankee ingenuity to find
> substitutes. Pumpkins are hard to announce - citrouilles
> - and hard to find. Cranberry sauce is almost unknown.
> My wife, Elizabeth, descendant of the Puritan fathers
> and former resident of New York...does her best.
>
> And we are thankful.
>
> Bill Bonner
>
>
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