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Looking at the charts a lot has happened in the past few days.
Once again it is interesting to note how counts can change, but that the
former count still put one on the right side of the trade. I find it
helpful to add Robert Minor's labeling of early waves as "wave A or 1, wave
2 or B and wave 3 or C" to keep ones "mind open" to the various counts that
are possible as prices unfold. Point being whether in a wave C or wave 3
down does not make any difference initially other than where one might take
profits.
Attached are updated charts with prices through 11:20 today:
1. The 60min chart (which was in a wave 3 and either in a minor wave 4 or
wave 4 ABC correction), re-labelled the ABC to a 1-2-3 down once the 1.0
swing level of 108-13 was exceeded to the downside. To do that it "has to"
call the previous wave 3 a wave 5 (ignoring the 5/35 oscillator). You might
recall the PTI indicator on the 60min indicated "at best a double top or a
failed 5th wave would occur" and that is exactly what happened. The low PTI
number (below 34) was correct indicating "early on" that something was wrong
with the structure and timing of the prior moves on the 60min. Note the
Strong MOB support that was touched Friday (as well as today) and the fact
that the wave 3 has reached the "normal target range". Accordingly a wave 4
correction up "could begin in here" (minor 4 or wave 4).
2. On the daily the same count change occured (wave 3 has been changed to a
wave 5 despite the 5/35 oscillator) and this is no longer a wave 4
correction. A new 1-2-3 downward count has started, strongly suggesting that
the weekly chart (wave 5) was correct. Note the ellipse target from the wave
4 only temporarily held and the the short term ellipse from the wave 2 is
currently holding, reinforcing the possibility that a wave 4 (minor or
major) may begin in here. We also touched a trendline from July.
3. The weekly chart as before, shows 5 waves are in, price had reached a
normal wave 5 target range, hit the MOB off of the previous wave 3 and a
major double top in bonds was likely in. It will be hard to imagine a move
to the upper MOB drawn off the 1998 at this point despite the seasonal
pattern.
The economy seems to be speaking to the markets?
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2001 6:45 PM
Subject: [RT] More on Bonds
> Here are the two 60min senarios I am looking at (FWIW the 60min chart is
> from 9-20-01 on the daily (shown) or minor wave 5 of wave 3 on the daily).
>
> 1. We are in wave 5 and this is a minor wave 4 of wave 5 and it pulled
back
> to the 50% of minor w2 to w3. From here it double tops, or moves to the
area
> of 113-01 (the 1.618 expansion) and the MOB shown?
>
> 2. A wave 3 has been completed and we are in a wave 4 and it is unfolding
in
> an ABC pattern (we are in the wave C now) which
> will allow wave 4 to meet the normal time frame (.382 of wave 3).
> Interestingly the low PTI of 19 could be saying that that it was wave
> 4:B (not a wave 5) and it would either double top or be a failed 5th that
> turns into a wave 4:B? Never thought of it that way but it makes sense.
>
> Daily and Weekly's:
>
> The daily chart (is from 5-18-01 or wave 5 on the weekly) is clearly
> in a wave 3 and a wave 4 could happen, notice we are we are already above
a
> 2.618
> expansion which according to AGEt only happens 8% of the time.
>
> The weekly shows a top may be in (there are 5 waves in, the wave 5 target
> range has been met, a MOB has been hit) or we get another surge later
> after the wave 3 daily corrects in a wave 4?
>
> Just what I am looking at at this time. Thoughts anyone? If you listen
to
> CNBC commentators, bonds are toast from here?
>
> FWIW there was a very nice 60min reversal on the bonds today for anyone
that
> saw it (there was also one on the 60min SP).
>
> I still think the 60min chart will tell the tale on the bonds?
> don ewers
>
>
>
>
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>
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Attachment:
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Attachment:
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