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I believe that either the intermediate term smart money started
leaving the market this week or the options expiration effects
were unusually pronounced. Next week will be telling, but I
strongly suspect the former. Not saying we won't go higher, smart
money seems to lead the market by a few weeks, but I'm a believer
in Ira's longer term bearish scenario until there is some
evidence otherwise.
On the short term positive side, Friday did look technically
strong.
regards,
tbr
> Date: Fri, 16 Nov 2001 12:35:36 -0500
> Subject: Re: 9-11 didn't exist
>
> I'm sure much of the rally has been short covering. But, I also feel smart money is coming in on the long side. Anyone who recognized the bubble of 2000 and went to cash or short is in an excellent position to get long now. I believe most of the "weak hands" have folded. Many of my acquaintances who know I follow the markets closely have recently confided in me that they have "finally given up on XYZ" (add your favorite here).
>
> To me this is almost as good a sign as having a bear on the cover of Time magazine.
>
> Good luck and good trading,
>
> Ray Raffurty
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Ira Tunik
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Friday, November 16, 2001 10:25 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] 9-11 didn't exist
>
> How much of this rally has been to cover short calls? That has been the latest get rich scheme since selling puts went out of favor. If you believe that the economy is in the throws or a recessionary spiral, then this is nothing more then a bear market rally. If you believe that because we have had limited success in the war and that is the reason for elation, you could be vary disappointed. Take a look at the the top 50 volume leaders in the Nasdaq and the the NYSE and look at the PE ratios. If you feel that these companies can grow at those rates, then there is hope that this rally is for real. If you are looking out 6 months and thinking that all will better then, that could be true, but will these companies increase their earnings and growth rates to overcome their current pricing? I don't have the answers to these questions and I don't believe that anyone else does. This is one of the reasons that I trade technically. I just follow the money. Not very glamourous but
> very profitable. Have a good week end. Ira.
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