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Just a note, on my weekly charts (SP cash, DJI, Nasdaq cash) it does not
look all that bad and fits quite nicely with what was already unfolding.
In fact the target level could have been easily lower in a grinding market
like we were in. The momentum bottom which most have gotten used to
playing, may have actually supported "earlier" buying than what would have
normally resulted. Anyway fits on most of my stuff FWIW and does not look
all that unusual for where we were EW pattern-wise, maybe just a little
quicker thats all on some (mid September vs October).
What I do see is different downward counts for each which is a reflection on
the severity of the bubble each was in and the flight to big cap safety (if
you can call it that).
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ray Raffurty" <r.raffurty@xxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 10:13 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] 9-11 didn't exist
> From a short tern point of view you can not discount such fears, in fact
you
> should trade them in a contrary manor. I remember a few years ago, I was
> short a lot of index options and in a losing position, just about to be
> stopped out, when some idiot fired shots in the US Capitol building. For
a
> few hours the market tanked, allowing me to get out with a profit. Had I
> increased my short I would have been wiped out. When the market settled
the
> short position continued to go bad but the charts where skewed for some
time
> to follow.
>
> But that should not influence a long term view. My contention is that
from
> a longer term point of view 9-11 should be discounted much as one would
> discount a bad tick that has skewed their charts.
>
> Good luck and good trading,
>
> Ray Raffurty
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Daniel Goncharoff
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 10:37 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] 9-11 didn't exist
>
>
> Ray
>
> The market sank yesterday because a plane crashed. There was fear that
> it was another terrorist attack. Doesn't this disprove the notion that
> 9/11 can be ignored?
>
> Regards
> DanG
>
> > Ray Raffurty wrote:
> >
> > 9-11 DIDN"T EXIST!!! It was a giant consperancy perpertrated by the
> > airline industre to receive huge government bail outs. In fact the
> > films everyone thinks they saw where created in a Hollywood computer
> > animation lab (the same as the films of the moon landings where).
> >
> >
> > OK, now that I've got your attention, what I mean to say is that from
> > a charting / technical analysis point of view perhaps all data between
> > 9/11/01 and today 11/13/01 should be deleted.
> >
> > I hope everyone had the courage and means to go long (almost
> > anything) shortly after the market reopened following the tragedy of
> > 9-11, but where do we go from here now that many stocks and the market
> > in general is back to pre 9-11 levels? I believe most standard
> > indicators whether price based or volume base are drastically skewed
> > due to 9-11 and the market's recovery. This is most apparent on daily
> > charts of 6 month duration or less (see pic 1)
> >
> > One way to accomplish this would be to back up the time frame, say to
> > 1 year or longer (pic 2). The problem here is that this may not
> > represent everyone's style of trading.
> >
> > My hypothesis is that all data between 9/11/01 and 11/13/01(and
> > perhaps even longer as events unfold) should be deleted.
> > Unfortunately I do not have the means to do this at this time.
> > However I think it might be an interesting line of research for
> > a magazine article or even a thesis. In fact one might extend the
> > idea to other similar events and develop a trading strategies as the
> > result.
> >
> > If nothing else it would make interesting conversation at your next
> > cocktail party.
> >
> > Good luck and good trading,
> >
> > Ray Raffurty
> >
> >
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> >
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> >
> > Name: pic1.gif
> > pic1.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > Encoding: base64
> >
> > Name: pic2.gif
> > pic2.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > Encoding: base64
>
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