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Nikkei was a bubble just like the Nasdaq. Nikkei p/e at the peak was
probably around 70 similar to the Nasdaq depending on who you talked
to. So yes, a valuation mania and crash doesn't have directly
correlate to the economy. Even now the Nikkei p/e is in the high 20s
so it isn't exactly cheap.
Japan's growth may have outstripped that of the US in the early 90's,
but that's not saying much. The US was in recession in 90-91 and
growth was tepid to say the least into 93. As long as the title of
this thread is layoffs, the latest US unemployment rate just exceeded
that of Japan: 5.4 vs 5.3. I suppose you're comparing apples to
oranges but I thought that was kind of interesting considering we're
not technically in recession yet and Japan seems to have been in
recession for years.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx> wrote:
> Hmmm....attached chart shows the Nikkei average down 70% since 1990.
> I guess their stock market acts independent of their economy then ?
> Wow - that's a first.
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: bruce.larson@xxxx [mailto:bruce.larson@x...]
> > Sent: Monday, November 12, 2001 2:14 PM
> > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Layoff's continue to increase
> >
> >
> > That's a popular misconception. Japan's gdp growth outstripped
that
> > of the US for the first half of the 90s. Real estate did OK in
the
> > early 90s as well. Initially, the pain was isolated to the stock
> > market. Yen strength into 1995 which interestingly coincided with
> > the Kobe earthquake and Nick Leeson hit hard. Short-term rates
were
> > 3-4% from 1986-89, they were 3-4% in 1992-93. Short rates dipped
> > below 1% after 1995.
> > You know what I also find interesting? Everytime I talk to
people I
> > know in Japan, they say its business as usual. Its primarily
> > manufacturing and brokerage that are suffering. Otherwise, Tokyo
is
> > bustling. I remember in the go-go 80s these same people said the
> > stock market boom didn't really effect them either. Just made
real
> > estate prices sky-high. But they already owned homes and weren't
> > planning on moving so it didn't make any difference. For others,
> > what was then beyond their reach is now affordable. If you
leveraged
> > your home and bought more real estate or stocks at the late 80
early
> > 90s mania you're screwed. No different than the Nasdaq mania. If
> > you weren't in it, you never got rich nor poor. Just a sonic boom
> > that rattled the windows. I'm sure if you bought Silicon Valley
real
> > estate in the mid-90s, your home has doubled in value. The only
> > people worried are those that bought in the past 2 years.
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Yeah, that's exactly what happened to Japan.....interest rates
went
> > to zero,
> > > prices went to near-zero......and they've been in recession for
10
> > YEARS.
> > >
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: bruce.larson@xxxx [mailto:bruce.larson@x...]
> > > > Sent: Monday, November 12, 2001 12:33 PM
> > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Layoff's continue to increase
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Sorry but I'm simply astonished at how cheap everything is.
The
> > rest
> > > > of the US pumps its gas for 90c-$1.30/gal. We were all
> > incredulous
> > > > the other day that our favorite PapaJohn's pizza is offering 2
> > large
> > > > pizzas for $12.99. I used to pay $15 for one large pizza at
> > > > RoundTable 20 years ago. My wife is going crazy buying
clothes
> > > > because they are giving'em away. Everyone in my neighborhood
> > bought
> > > > brand new Mercedes from their 5% cashout refis. Mortgage
rates
> > are
> > > > down making everything more affordable, tax rates are going
down
> > > > making everything more affordable, airfares appear half price
> > from a
> > > > few months back, zero interest rates and deferred payments on
> > > > everything from cars to computers to furtniture, soon
everything
> > will
> > > > be free.
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, Ira Tunik <irat@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > In the bay area a lot of high priced people have been laid
off.
> > > > 500 from
> > > > > Medtronics, several hundred from Agilent, and many of the
> > telecom
> > > > companies
> > > > > have folded their tents. Some of the big telecom companies
have
> > > > laid off
> > > > > hundreds. Those $700,000 to million dollar homes that where
> > going
> > > > like hot
> > > > > cakes last year might just come back on the market. Even the
> > wine
> > > > industry
> > > > > which is big in Sonoma and Napa counties is taking a hit
with
> > > > layoffs. Yet
> > > > > the owners of retail space keep raising the rents, Apartment
> > houses
> > > > have a 2%
> > > > > vacancy factor and their rents keep climbing. Everyone says
> > that
> > > > we are in a
> > > > > deflationary spiral and prices are coming down. Air fares
are
> > > > supposed to be
> > > > > a bargain. forget it. Checked on flights to Hawaii, they
are
> > twice
> > > > what they
> > > > > were the last time I went just over a year ago. I am
wondering
> > > > what good the
> > > > > producer price index is when we import almost everything we
use.
> > > > Cloths and
> > > > > shoes from the far east, food and vegetables from South
America
> > and
> > > > > Australia, timber from Canada, oil from the middle east,
> > > > electronics from the
> > > > > far east and auto parts from all over. We do produce
missiles
> > and
> > > > airplanes
> > > > > here and I am sure that every household has at least two or
> > three
> > > > of each.
> > > > > The made in America symbol means very little. It should
read,
> > > > assembled in
> > > > > America, parts made elsewhere. So when you see all those
fancy
> > > > numbers, look
> > > > > at the balance of payments and see where your dollars are
really
> > > > going. Of
> > > > > course gas prices are back down to $1.75, a real bargain.
> > Medical
> > > > costs are
> > > > > up, health insurance costs are up, dental work costs more,
> > almost
> > > > everything
> > > > > you buy to sustain life is up in cost. Of course you can
buy a
> > 2
> > > > MHz
> > > > > computer for under $2000 and that is proof that prices are
> > coming
> > > > down. How
> > > > > many of you buy a computer on a weekly basis? Is it really
0%
> > > > financing on a
> > > > > new car or is the cost hidden in the price? What is truth
and
> > what
> > > > is
> > > > > fiction in the numbers that are thrown our way? Could you
> > maintain
> > > > the same
> > > > > life style on last years income or on the income from 5
years
> > ago?
> > > > As the
> > > > > powers say, we haven't had any inflation for the past 5
years.
> > Is
> > > > there any
> > > > > correlation between the governments CPI, PPI and inflation
> > numbers
> > > > and the
> > > > > cost of living. They produce the numbers, we have to pay to
> > live.
> > > > Oh, yes.
> > > > > You did get a tax rebate and immediately went out and bought
> > that
> > > > cabin
> > > > > cruiser you where looking at with all that money the
government
> > > > returned to
> > > > > you. Have a good week. Ira.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > bruce.larson@xxxx wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > I've read plenty about hospitality and tourism being hit
in
> > Orange
> > > > > > County(Disneyland) where I live. But these are all
minimum
> > wage
> > > > jobs
> > > > > > (restaurants, airlines, hotels) where there was a labor
> > shortage
> > > > > > several months back. These aren't people who buy
expensive
> > homes
> > > > and
> > > > > > cars.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Me Tarzan" <ibe98765@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > > > > > "I, for one, don't personally know anyone who is out of
a
> > job"
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Consider yourself lucky. I know way too many. With
all the
> > > > > > defense
> > > > > > > spending going on, So. CA might not get hot too bad.
But
> > IMO,
> > > > the
> > > > > > SF
> > > > > > > Bay area is the harbinger for much of the rest of the
> > country in
> > > > > > this
> > > > > > > regard. We even have a web site for out of work people
to
> > get
> > > > > > > together and do other activities <g>
> > > > > > (http://www.recessioncamp.com).
> > > > > > > I'm a few miles from SF Airport where United Airlines
has a
> > > > major
> > > > > > > hub. They have laid off a good number of people here.
I
> > hear
> > > > that
> > > > > > > In-n-Out burgers has lowered their starting hourly rate
from
> > > > $10/hr
> > > > > > > to $8 because their are so many candidates. Hotels are
> > mostly
> > > > less
> > > > > > > than 50% full and are laying off or cutting back the
hours
> > of
> > > > > > > workers. Restaurants are cutting staff because people
are
> > not
> > > > > > eating
> > > > > > > out as much or spending as much when they do. There are
> > rental
> > > > > > > vacancy signs all over my neighborhood as people without
> > jobs
> > > > have
> > > > > > > either moved in with someone else or left the area.
> > Recruiters
> > > > are
> > > > > > > going out of business left and right, saying businesses
are
> > not
> > > > > > > hiring. People are hurting.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > As to the unemployment numbers and 5.4% being lower than
> > what
> > > > was
> > > > > > > previously accepted - that was a different time. We've
> > built
> > > > our
> > > > > > > current economy around low unemployment. People
expecting
> > to
> > > > > > always
> > > > > > > be able to find work went out on a limb to buy expensive
> > houses,
> > > > > > cars
> > > > > > > and take 2 vacations a year. That drove the economy
forward
> > > > across
> > > > > > > all industries. But up here, it generally takes two
working
> > > > people
> > > > > > > to even begin to afford a mortgage. What happens when
at
> > least
> > > > one
> > > > > > > of those people loses their job? Bad news cascades and
not
> > > > only do
> > > > > > > people not by houses and cars, but they cut back on
other
> > > > spending
> > > > > > as
> > > > > > > well. Predictions I have seen are for unemployment to
hit
> > 6%
> > > > when
> > > > > > it
> > > > > > > the numbers are next reported.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Here's a good economic link with a lot of info on
> > unemployment
> > > > that
> > > > > > I
> > > > > > > recently came across:
> > > > > > > http://www.epinet.org/
> > > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, bruce.larson@xxxx wrote:
> > > > > > > > I've been reading about massive corporate lay-offs esp
> > > > associated
> > > > > > > > with banking mergers for the past 5 years. Seemed
> > everyone
> > > > just
> > > > > > > got
> > > > > > > > a big fat severance package and turned around and got
> > another
> > > > job
> > > > > > > for
> > > > > > > > more money. Otherwise they got rehired as
consultants for
> > > > better
> > > > > > > > pay. I suppose the payrolls and claims data are
> > confirming
> > > > the
> > > > > > > > negative news reports for the past several months.
But
> > on the
> > > > > > > other
> > > > > > > > hand, a 5.4% unemployment rate is far below the
previous
> > 6%
> > > > > > > standard
> > > > > > > > of NAIRU(non-accelerating inflationary rate of
> > unemployemnt)
> > > > > > > commonly
> > > > > > > > accepted in the early 90s. I, for one, don't
personally
> > know
> > > > > > > anyone
> > > > > > > > who is out of a job. Aside from some furniture chain
> > store
> > > > > > > closures,
> > > > > > > > I really don't see much evidence of a slowdown out
here in
> > > > > > southern
> > > > > > > > California...yet.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Norman Winski"
<nwinski@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > > > > > > Me,
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > I am forecasting a better than expected holiday
> > shopping
> > > > > > > > > season. The US economiy bottomed last week. You
will
> > hear
> > > > about
> > > > > > > > > it in February.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Cheers,
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Norman
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > From: "Me Tarzan" <ibe98765@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > > Sent: Saturday, November 10, 2001 1:50 AM
> > > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] Layoff's continue to increase
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Each layoff likely removes one more shopper for
the
> > Xmas
> > > > > > > season...
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > http://www.msnbc.com/news/555872.asp?cp1=1
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >
> > > >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
> begin 666 nikkei-1990-now.gif
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> end
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