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If you pull up the monthly chart on NDX and use the obvious peak as the
pivot and including that monthly bar count to the current month us will
count 20 starting at peak again and count to the left you the period I was
referring to it is 21 months.. 1 month skew is not uncommon. It is not
uncommon in a chart like this one to have two bars on one side make up equal
of the other ... in this case July 31, 1998 high combined with Month of Aug
20 1998 low combined are pretty close to equal to this month Oct 2001. The
highs differ by 1.43 which is not worth mentioning..... the lows a larger
difference 8.71 but still pretty close. Symmetry will phase in and phase
out... seldom is it like a mirror image for the entire period especially
when we are looking at a monthly chart as is the one we are discussing here.
I would suggest you arrow down and re read original post.. so far it has
been accurate...
best, Dorothy
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 5:09 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Case for the bulls-Maybe there is a case for both the
bullsand the bears?
> I can't direct you to a discussion, because I don't know of any books or
papers that were written specifically on this subject. There are
> several things that you can look at to ideas on this phenomena. There is
Hurst's book on cycles for one, and there is some Gann and Eliot that
> might help you. Basically you should look for the angel of assent or
dissent of price. this can be set up in channels so that you have an
> idea of momentum in the direction you are looking at. The steeper the
angle the greater the momentum and the later in the cycle the high will
> appear. The reverse is true for down markets. Here is a 3 min. chart of
the S&P for today showing a 17 bar cycle. Look at where the highs
> occurred relative to the cycle start and cycle finish for the legs up and
for the legs down. That is what translation is, the movement of the
> high from the beginning of the cycle to the end of the cycle depending on
whether you are in an up move or a down move. That is one of the
> reasons that cycle are always measured from low to low. Now look at
symmetry. From the start of the cycle count you have 3 cycle up and 3
> cycle down with the high exactly in the middle. What should you expect
from the next 6 cycle move? It should appear as a channel with little
> upside potential. Being the low at the end of the 6 cycle move was lower
then that at the beginning, the rally shouldn't take out the high and
> the next leg down should be lower then the first leg down. A simple
application of Gann's measured move theory. Usually the greater the
> momentum of the move the earlier or later the high, depending on whether
the move is up or down. I hope that this helps explain the theory
> behind translation. Ira.
>
> ChasW wrote:
>
> > Ira, pls direct me to some dicussion of translation. If I remeber
correctly
> > it has to do with the identifcation of a bullish or bearish tend, but
> > evaluating the rate of change of the up vs down moves. a bull trend
grinds
> > upwards against the wall of worry with short severe corrective drops and
the
> > bear is the opposite?
> >
> > Chasw
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 4:15 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Case for the bulls-Maybe there is a case for both the
> > bulls and the bears?
> >
> > > Symmetry means that the right and left side of something are alike.
with
> > the markets this is not true. If the market is rallying then the
> > > high will usually occur during the last half of the cycle, sometimes
on
> > the very last bar. In a down market then the high comes during the
> > > first half of the cycle. There is no symmetry. The lows should be
> > equally spaced at 10 bar, 15 bar or # bar cycle, but the cycles are not
> > > symmetrical in their individual shape. The second down leg could be
> > symmetrical with the first, etc. but to call an up leg symmetrical to a
> > > down leg is usually not true because of the translation of the highs.
> > >
> > > "Dorothy K. Carter" wrote:
> > >
> > > > IRA: While I expect a rally into Nov 1, NDX has given the
following
> > > > downside targets:
> > > > 1137.25 787.08 .......... Pls explain why I forgot about
> > > > translation????? Best, Dorothy
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Sunday, October 28, 2001 11:08 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Case for the bulls-Maybe there is a case for both
the
> > > > bulls and the bears?
> > > >
> > > > > You talk about symmetry and forget about translation.
> > > > >
> > > > > "Dorothy K. Carter" wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > I agree the next leg down ... there will be no place to hide...
The
> > DJIA
> > > > > > will most probably be taken down harder than NAZ.... To get the
real
> > > > idea of
> > > > > > where NDX is at take a look at monthly chart symmetry would
> > suggest
> > > > that
> > > > > > if a rally ended Fri. with the sharp reversal as suspected,
then
> > that
> > > > high
> > > > > > would be equal to monthly high of 7/31/98 1485.97. As
stated
> > > > before...
> > > > > > with US$ turning down it's the foreign sellers that we have to
worry
> > > > > > about.... The U.S. investors have shown resolute and won't
> > capitulate
> > > > until
> > > > > > Sept. lows are taken out most probably....... Have a great week
> > > > > > trading............ Dorothy
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "Rakesh Sahgal" <r_sahgal@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Sunday, October 28, 2001 1:00 PM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Case for the bulls-Maybe there is a case for
both
> > the
> > > > > > bulls and the bears?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Am attaching two charts using Clyde's adaptive stoch indicator
on
> > the
> > > > > > D/W/M
> > > > > > > time frames. Seems that the tech bust is almost finished and
as
> > Earl
> > > > had
> > > > > > > suggested a while back the "REAL" economy stocks in the DJI
are
> > the
> > > > ones
> > > > > > in
> > > > > > > serious trouble now.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Rakesh
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > At 09:34 AM 10/28/01 -0800, you wrote:
> > > > > > > >Hi All,
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >IMHO, speaking only to the NDX, the bears are quietly, slowly
> > > > > > > >being squeezed hard. Unless some serious exogenous (external)
> > > > > > > >event occurs they seem about to have their heads handed to
> > > > > > > >them. Anthrax news has not been even nearly strong enough
to
> > > > > > > >stop this. 5 min NASDAQ adv/decl volume bars have been
clearly
> > > > > > > >bullish for a couple weeks. Additional support comes from the
> > > > > > > >bears quietly changing their retest the lows in October
> > > > > > > >prognostications to retest the lows in November/December. I'm
not
> > > > > > > >saying the long term downtrend has changed, nothing's
different,
> > > > > > > >bearishness seems justified.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >But, unless I had a solidly profitable short position or just
> > > > > > > >went short in the last few days with a close stop, I would be
> > > > > > > >losing sleep now.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >Maybe I'm wrong. This market has shown the absolute minimum
of
> > > > > > > >bullishness possible every step of the way this year. But
that's
> > > > > > > >the beauty of day trading NDX futures. It means never having
to
> > > > > > > >care which way the market goes so long as it moves 8-).
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >regards,
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >tbr
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >_________________________________________________________
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