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Hello
this is a strong week
historically
For next week the big story is seasonally.As you can see
by the tables below, it does not matter much where you go.The last 2-3 days
in October and first 2-3 days in November are second only tothe period
between Christmas and the New Year for consistent returns.The Russell 2k has
been up every Halloween day since its inception in 1987.Over the FastTrack
database Monday's, if they are the first or last day of the trade have not
been favorable so the approach will be to buy as of Monday's close and sell
at Friday's close.
I am a little concerned about the overbought condition of the
market so itwould be a big plus if Monday was down.
If the seasonally scenario plays out with the last 4 days of
next week strong,the week will be ending overbought with bearish divergences
on the momentumindicators setting up for a weak period beginning the week of
Nov 5.
I will be taking long positions in all accounts as of Monday's
close.The sector account will be split between Basic Materials because over
the short life of the fund its performance has been spectacular in the
OCT/NOV period.Biotech and Banking because have had consistently great
performance in the OCT/NOV period.
Last 3 days of October and first 3 days of
November.S&P-500
Composite
Mondays excludedThe number following the daily return represents the day
of the week;1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.
<FONT
size=2>
Day3 Day2
Day1 Day1
Day2 Day3
Totals 1989-1 -0.85% 5 0.00%
1 1.58% 2 0.25% 3 -0.80% 4 -0.25%
5
-0.07% 1990-2
Monday 0.72% 2 -0.02% 3 0.99% 4 1.57%
5 Monday
3.27% 1991-3 0.50% 2
0.38% 3 -0.13% 4 -0.29% 5 -0.27% 1 -0.40%
2 -0.20% 1992-4
0.39% 3 0.17% 4 -0.52% 5 0.97% 1 -0.67%
2 -0.67% 3
-0.32% 1993-1 0.07% 3
0.67% 4 0.02% 5 0.27% 1 -0.14% 2 -1.16%
3 -0.27% 1994-2
0.70% 4 1.70% 5 -0.30% 1 -0.83% 2 -0.41%
3 0.30% 4
1.16% 1995-3 0.52% 5
0.61% 1 -0.30% 2 0.47% 3 0.94% 4 0.14%
5
2.38% 1996-4 0.61% 2 -0.09%
3 0.62% 4 -0.21% 5 0.42% 1 1.05%
2 2.40% 1997-1
-0.29% 3 -1.68% 4 1.21% 5 2.66% 1
0.19% 2 0.21% 3
2.30% 1998-2 0.26% 3
1.67% 4 1.17% 5 1.18% 1 -0.07% 2 0.70%
3
4.91% 1999-3 1.15% 3
3.53% 4 1.53% 5 -0.65% 1 -0.47% 2 0.53%
3
5.62% 2000-4 1.11% 5
1.38% 1 2.20% 2 -0.57% 3 0.50% 4 -0.11%
5 4.50%
Averages
0.38% 0.76%
0.59% 0.35%
0.07% 0.03%
2.14%% Winners
82% 83%
58% 58%
42% 55%
NASDAQ
Composite
Day3 Day2
Day1 Day1
Day2 Day3
Totals 1989-1 -1.18% 5 -0.31%
1 0.93% 2 0.22% 3 -0.77% 4 -0.02%
5
-1.13% 1990-2 Monday
-0.05% 2 0.00% 3 0.23% 4 1.77%
5 Monday
1.95% 1991-3 0.96% 2
1.27% 3 0.31% 4 -0.38% 5 -0.63% 1 0.25%
2
1.78% 1992-4 0.74% 3
0.74% 4 -0.11% 5 0.40% 1 -0.49% 2 0.16%
3
1.43% 1993-1 0.84% 3
0.21% 4 0.75% 5 0.58% 1 0.24% 2 -1.62%
3
1.00% 1994-2 0.55% 4
1.13% 5 0.17% 1 -0.68% 2 -0.05% 3 0.04%
4
1.16% 1995-3 0.78% 5
1.38% 1 -0.35% 2 0.43% 3 1.62% 4 0.79%
5 4.65% 1996-4
-1.06% 2 0.26% 3 1.27% 4 0.02% 5
-0.11% 1 0.70% 2
1.09% 1997-1 -0.02% 3 -2.02%
4 1.48% 5 2.28% 1 0.07% 2 0.38%
3
2.18% 1998-2 1.15% 3
1.14% 4 0.81% 5 1.67% 1 -0.69% 2 1.96%
3 6.04% 1999-3
-0.32% 3 2.59% 4 3.17% 5 0.04% 1
0.47% 2 1.57% 3
7.53% 2000-4 0.19% 5 -2.65%
1 5.58% 2 -1.08% 3 2.87% 4 0.66%
5 5.57%
Averages
0.24% 0.31%
1.17% 0.31%
0.36% 0.44%
2.77%% Winners
64% 67%
83% 75%
50% 82%
Russell
2000
Day3 Day2
Day1 Day1
Day2 Day3
Totals 1989-1 -1.08% 5 -0.39%
1 0.69% 2 0.21% 3 -0.34% 4 0.08%
5
-0.83% 1990-2 Monday
-0.73% 2 0.00% 3 0.08% 4 1.20%
5 Monday
0.55% 1991-3 0.64% 2
0.80% 3 0.88% 4 -0.19% 5 -0.41% 1 0.05%
2
1.77% 1992-4 0.64% 3
0.23% 4 0.32% 5 0.50% 1 -0.14% 2 -0.04%
3
1.52% 1993-1 0.45% 3
0.36% 4 0.90% 5 0.12% 1 0.26% 2 -1.18%
3
0.91% 1994-2 0.57% 4
1.09% 5 0.01% 1 -0.60% 2 0.11% 3 0.16%
4 1.33% 1995-3
-0.03% 5 0.57% 1 0.00% 2 0.49% 3
1.11% 4 0.60% 5
2.74% 1996-4 -0.60% 2 0.04%
3 0.71% 4 -0.24% 5 0.04% 1 -0.01%
2 -0.07% 1997-1
1.16% 3 -1.43% 4 1.07% 5 1.78% 1 0.30%
2 0.55% 3
3.44% 1998-2 -0.01% 3 0.81%
4 0.98% 5 2.29% 1 0.19% 2 1.39%
3
5.66% 1999-3 0.24% 3
1.45% 4 1.38% 5 0.74% 1 0.13% 2
1.40% 3
5.34% 2000-4 0.02% 5
0.60% 1 3.10% 2 -0.50% 3 2.38% 4 0.15%
5 5.75%
Averages 0.18%
0.28% 0.91%
0.39% 0.40%
0.29% 2.34%%
Winners
64% 75%
100% 67%
75% 73%
Fidelity Sel
Biotechnology
Day3 Day2
Day1 Day1
Day2 Day3
Totals 1989-1 -2.00% 5 -0.49%
1 1.62% 2 0.07% 3 -0.35% 4 -0.14%
5
-1.28% 1990-2 Monday
-0.22% 2 -0.95% 3 0.68% 4 1.69%
5 Monday
1.19% 1991-3 0.72% 2
2.12% 3 1.02% 4 -0.06% 5 -1.33% 1 0.06%
2 2.53% 1992-4
-0.11% 3 1.37% 4 0.48% 5 0.73% 1
-0.54% 2 -0.95% 3
0.98% 1993-1 0.93% 3
0.07% 4 0.68% 5 0.92% 1 -0.14% 2 -0.49%
3
1.97% 1994-2 0.29% 4
0.74% 5 -0.86% 1 -1.32% 2 -0.50% 3 -0.42%
4 -2.07% 1995-3
0.13% 5 0.68% 1 0.45% 2 0.19% 3
0.10% 4 0.32% 5
1.87% 1996-4 -0.71% 2 -0.42%
3 1.01% 4 -0.71% 5 -0.77% 1 0.06%
2 -1.53% 1997-1
0.99% 3 -0.87% 4 1.38% 5 2.15% 1 0.67%
2 1.64% 3
5.95% 1998-2 1.01% 3
2.37% 4 0.03% 5 1.87% 1 0.76% 2
0.38% 3
6.42% 1999-3 -0.28% 3 1.82%
4 2.31% 5 0.06% 1 -1.79% 2 -0.06%
3 2.07% 2000-4
-2.02% 5 -1.62% 1 3.15% 2 2.85% 3
4.87% 4 -0.55% 5 6.69%
Averages -0.09%
0.46% 0.86%
0.62% 0.22%
-0.01% 2.07%%
Winners
55% 58%
83% 75%
42% 45%
Rydex Basic
Materials
Day3 Day2
Day1 Day1
Day2 Day3
Totals 1998-2 -0.90% 3 1.30%
4 2.81% 5 0.75% 1 1.36% 2 0.61%
3 5.92% 1999-3
-0.12% 3 0.12% 4 3.60% 5 -1.27% 1
1.06% 2 0.46% 3
3.85% 2000-4 0.82% 5
7.31% 1 1.06% 2 -1.35% 3 -0.91% 4 1.38%
5 8.30%
Averages -0.07%
2.91% 2.49%
-0.63% 0.50%
0.82% 6.02%%
Winners 33%
100% 100%
33% 67%
100%
Fidelity Sel
Banking
Day3 Day2
Day1 Day1
Day2 Day3
Totals 1989-1 -1.62% 5 -0.41%
1 0.75% 2 0.66% 3 0.08% 4 0.00%
5
-0.55% 1990-2
Monday 0.00% 2 -0.27% 3 1.51% 4 3.38%
5 Monday
4.61% 1991-3 1.43% 2
0.52% 3 -0.37% 4 -0.07% 5 -0.15% 1 0.07%
2
1.43% 1992-4 0.39% 3
0.28% 4 -0.17% 5 0.45% 1 -0.28% 2 -0.34%
3 0.34% 1993-1
-0.71% 3 0.52% 4 0.52% 5 0.94% 1
-0.47% 2 -2.62% 3
-1.81% 1994-2 0.93% 4
1.31% 5 -0.16% 1 -0.86% 2 -0.43% 3 0.33%
4
1.11% 1995-3 1.29% 5 -0.62%
1 -0.40% 2 1.16% 3 1.19% 4 -0.56%
5
2.05% 1996-4 1.21% 2
0.60% 3 0.67% 4 -0.49% 5 0.56% 1 1.43%
2
3.97% 1997-1 0.98% 3 -2.37%
4 1.07% 5 2.12% 1 -0.08% 2 0.46%
3
2.18% 1998-2 1.03% 3
1.66% 4 1.41% 5 0.99% 1 -0.10% 2 2.14%
3
7.14% 1999-3 3.74% 3
5.61% 4 -0.94% 5 -1.16% 1 0.42% 2 -1.10%
3
6.57% 2000-4 2.63% 5
4.27% 1 1.21% 2 -0.60% 3 0.86% 4 0.16%
5 8.53%
Averages 1.03%
1.03% 0.28%
0.39% 0.42%
0.00% 2.96%%
Winners
82% 73%
50% 58%
50% 60%
Good luck
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