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I expect minimum 50%-62% retracement 1026-1006. The manner in which the
decline unfolds should provide further clues as to whether this is
corrective (secondary low) or impulsive (new lows).
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steve Walker" <steve@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, October 18, 2001 7:49 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Markets bullish (short term view)
> A 38.2% retracement would take us to 1045 on the cash SPX. Any better
downside forecasts out there?
>
> >>> eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx 10/17/01 07:34PM >>>
> My short term view is now less bullish than it was. The move met my
criteria
> time wise (18th +-) but not price wise as I expected it to move closer to
> 1150. Essentially most of the time allotted to the second leg of the rally
> up was spent going mostly sideways. The move down is now of crucial
> importance to see if we get a satisfactory secondary low or a complete
> failure. I will note that the inability of price to move up to the target
> has negative implications for the move down. One must keep in mind that a
> bear market is a bear market until proven otherwise so I remain bearish
but
> open to the possibility of a secondary low which could sustain a rally.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Steve Walker" <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2001 3:04 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Markets bullish (short term view)
>
>
> Earl.....did the move this morning meet your updide criteria and are we
now
> headed for the secondary low?
>
> Steve
>
> >>> eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx 10/14/01 07:47AM >>>
> I believe that the market is sending clear signals that it intends to
> continue moving up. There were two very important psychological tests this
> past week which should not be ignored:
>
> 1) the anthrax scare on Friday was good for only a quick short and then
only
> if one did not blink
>
> 2) the market closed near the high end of the consolidation range on
Friday
> in spite of prospects for bad news on the terrorism front over the weekend
>
> Pretty much across the board, my Advanced Get index charts are showing a
W.4
> rally which has been so strong that the probability for a lower low in W.5
> are quite low. Further, most of the major indexes have been moving up in
> nice, albeit steep, regression channels. This combination suggests that
the
> next leg down is most likely to establish a secondary low from which
another
> rally will occur. I still have not filled in the holes in my breadth
charts
> from my absence so I don't have a reading there, however spot observation
of
> daily a/d volumes for the past 10 days suggests that there has been more
> accumulation than distribution, especially in the NYSE stocks. Further,
some
> cup and handle patterns are beginning to appear in hourly charts. Absent
> another calamity, I still see a move to S&P500 1150+-, perhaps by the
18th,
> followed by a correction to establish a secondary low.
>
> Anyone who has read my posts here knows that my long term picture is as
> bearish as it gets. I am not seeing the beginning of a new bull market.
What
> I am seeing is a picture which may be consistent with the fiscal and
> monetary stimulus which has been poured on the markets. As such, this may
> provide some good opportunities on the long side for nimble traders.
>
> Earl
>
>
>
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