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Earl.....did the move this morning meet your updide criteria and are we now headed for the secondary low?
Steve
>>> eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx 10/14/01 07:47AM >>>
I believe that the market is sending clear signals that it intends to
continue moving up. There were two very important psychological tests this
past week which should not be ignored:
1) the anthrax scare on Friday was good for only a quick short and then only
if one did not blink
2) the market closed near the high end of the consolidation range on Friday
in spite of prospects for bad news on the terrorism front over the weekend
Pretty much across the board, my Advanced Get index charts are showing a W.4
rally which has been so strong that the probability for a lower low in W.5
are quite low. Further, most of the major indexes have been moving up in
nice, albeit steep, regression channels. This combination suggests that the
next leg down is most likely to establish a secondary low from which another
rally will occur. I still have not filled in the holes in my breadth charts
from my absence so I don't have a reading there, however spot observation of
daily a/d volumes for the past 10 days suggests that there has been more
accumulation than distribution, especially in the NYSE stocks. Further, some
cup and handle patterns are beginning to appear in hourly charts. Absent
another calamity, I still see a move to S&P500 1150+-, perhaps by the 18th,
followed by a correction to establish a secondary low.
Anyone who has read my posts here knows that my long term picture is as
bearish as it gets. I am not seeing the beginning of a new bull market. What
I am seeing is a picture which may be consistent with the fiscal and
monetary stimulus which has been poured on the markets. As such, this may
provide some good opportunities on the long side for nimble traders.
Earl
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