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Re: [RT] THE UK SPECTATOR: How America went for broke



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width=3D13></TD>
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vAlign=3Dcenter><A=20
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current&amp;issue=3D2001-09-29&amp;id=3D1131"=20
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width=3D1></TD>
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            src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D10></TD>
          <TD bgColor=3D#ffffff><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
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          <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
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        width=3D1></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD>
    <TD vAlign=3Dtop>
      <TABLE border=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 cellSpacing=3D0 =
onmouseover=3DhideAllLayers()=20
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        <TR>
          <TD vAlign=3Dtop><IMG border=3D0 height=3D5=20
            src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D420><BR><SPAN=20
            class=3Dartitle>FEATURES <IMG border=3D0 height=3D15=20
            src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/article_line1.gif"=20
            width=3D420><BR></SPAN><SPAN class=3Datitle>How America went =
for=20
            broke<BR></SPAN><SPAN class=3Dasummary><B>Simon Nixon</B> =
says that=20
            recession is the price that the United States must pay for =
two=20
            decades of uncritical faith in the stock market </SPAN><IMG =
border=3D0=20
            height=3D15 =
src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/article_line1.gif"=20
            width=3D420> <SPAN class=3Dabodytext>There are those who say =
that the=20
            terrorist attacks on the United States were deserved, that =
America=20
            had it coming, that the attacks will change the world for =
ever. To=20
            blame the United States for an act of terrorism in which =
thousands=20
            of innocent civilians lost their lives is morally abhorrent. =
But the=20
            irony is that if these commentators had confined their =
comments to=20
            the state of the US economy, they would have been spot-on. =
If ever=20
            there was anything that was America&#8217;s own fault, and =
that will=20
            change the world for ever, it is the coming US recession.=20
            <BR><BR><BR></SPAN>
            <TABLE border=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 cellSpacing=3D0 =
width=3D400>
              <TBODY>
              <TR>
                <TD><IMG height=3D280=20
                  =
src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/cartoons/2001-09-29-2.gif"=20
                  width=3D400></TD></TR>
              <TR>
                <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D5=20
                  src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"=20
              width=3D10></TD></TR>
              <TR>
                <TD><I><SPAN class=3Dacartoon>&#8216;Should I wear =
shorts or=20
                  =
slacks?&#8217;</SPAN></I></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><SPAN=20
            class=3Dabodytext><BR>Anyone reading the newspapers during =
the past=20
            week could be forgiven for concluding that the events of 11=20
            September have changed the course of the US economy. Within =
days of=20
            the attacks, without even waiting to see the evidence of a =
full=20
            week&#8217;s trading, many of the biggest names in US =
industry, including=20
            General Electric, Boeing and the big investment banks, were =
blaming=20
            the terrorists for a dramatic collapse in profits and the =
need for=20
            swingeing job cuts. UK firms such as British Airways and =
Virgin were=20
            soon to follow. Meanwhile, many Wall Street economists, =
consistently=20
            wrong with their forecasts all year, gratefully seized this=20
            face-saving opportunity to pronounce that they now believe =
that a=20
            recession is inevitable. <BR><BR>This attempt to blame the =
terrorist=20
            attacks does not bear scrutiny. America has been heading for =
a nasty=20
            recession all year. The cynical timing of these latest =
company=20
            announcements adds greatly to the short-term dangers, =
fuelling=20
            investor panic, but they make little difference to =
America&#8217;s=20
            long-term prospects. The state of the US economy is dire, =
and it is=20
            dire today for exactly the same reasons as were true three =
weeks=20
            ago. <BR><BR>America is reaping what it has sowed over the =
last two=20
            decades. So convinced did successive US administrations =
become that=20
            the stock market was the only efficient way to allocate =
capital in=20
            the economy that they blew away virtually every safeguard =
within the=20
            financial system. Financial systems, just like political =
systems,=20
            require checks and balances to ensure that no part of the =
system=20
            becomes too powerful. But US policy-makers, driven by an =
ideological=20
            belief in the virtues of unfettered free markets, sat idly =
by as=20
            capital markets, and the investment banks that dominate =
them,=20
            systematically eroded every attempt to control them &#8212; =
culminating in=20
            the 1998 repeal of the Glass-Steagal Act, a totemic piece of =
New=20
            Deal legislation passed in response to the devastation =
caused by the=20
            Great Crash of 1929. <BR><BR>The result has been the biggest =
bubble=20
            of all time, a grotesque misallocation of capital leading to =
massive=20
            overcapacity in certain sectors of the economy and =
near-collapse in=20
            others. Share prices became the sole measure of economic =
success in=20
            the US economy, and investment banks became adept at =
channelling=20
            funds to where share prices were rising fastest, sucking in =
money=20
            from around the world to drive them higher. The US economy =
was=20
            transformed into a giant pyramid scheme, the like of which =
had not=20
            been seen since the South Sea Bubble in the 1720s. =
<BR><BR>The=20
            comical excesses of the dotcoms may have grabbed the =
headlines, but=20
            by far the biggest misallocation of capital took place in =
the=20
            telecoms sector. It spent an estimated $4,000 billion =
building new=20
            networks to meet the expected explosion in Internet traffic. =
So=20
            great is the excess capacity, it is said that if the entire=20
            population of the world &#8212; all six billion of us =
&#8212; were to talk=20
            solidly on the telephone for a year, it could be transmitted =
over=20
            existing networks within a few hours. According to industry=20
            estimates, less than 2 per cent of the fibre-optic cable =
buried=20
            under Europe and North America has even been turned on, or =
&#8216;lit&#8217;,=20
            and of that which has been lit, only about 10 per cent is in =
use.=20
            <BR><BR>The excesses of the telecoms sector are reflected =
elsewhere=20
            in the economy; not just in the technology sector, but also =
in the=20
            services industries &#8212; banks, airlines, advertising and =

            public-relations agencies &#8212; that catered to the =
&#8216;new economy&#8217;.=20
            Meanwhile, other areas of US industry, such as the =
utilities, have=20
            been starved of investment. A bungled privatisation of the=20
            Californian power industry, for example, has left the state =
unable=20
            to meet the demand for electricity. <BR><BR>For 20 years =
America has=20
            been borrowing unprecedented quantities of money to play its =

            stock-market casino. Even after the latest falls, the US =
stock=20
            market is worth 120 per cent of GDP, compared with 40 per =
cent for=20
            much of the 1980s, and far above its previous peak of 72 per =
cent in=20
            1972. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit stands at a record 4 =
per cent=20
            of GDP; no country has ever been able to sustain a deficit =
on this=20
            scale for long. The US currently absorbs 64 per cent of all =
global=20
            capital flows to finance its deficit. Capital has been =
sucked out of=20
            the rest of the world, including many developing countries, =
to=20
            enable America to indulge itself. It is no coincidence that=20
            Citicorp, the giant US bank, has its largest branch outside =
New York=20
            in Buenos Aires. <BR><BR>For years Americans deluded =
themselves that=20
            they were actually making this money rather than borrowing =
it. With=20
            the ever-rising stock market fuelling the illusion of =
wealth, they=20
            embarked on an orgy of personal spending, building up an =
average=20
            credit-card debt of $7,000 per household and allowing the =
proportion=20
            of their incomes saved to fall below zero for the first time =
since=20
            the 1920s. But now the casino has closed for business, and =
America=20
            finds that it has run out of chips. <BR><BR>The likelihood =
is that=20
            it will take years to pull out of this recession. Warren =
Buffet, the=20
            legendary US investor, is said to have told friends that =
America=20
            faces eight years of slump. The Japanese market bubble burst =
more=20
            than 10 years ago, and its economy has never recovered. =
Today, the=20
            Japanese financial system teeters on the edge of collapse, =
adding to=20
            the uncertainty in the global economy. The last time the US =
faced a=20
            collapse of this nature &#8212; in 1929 &#8212; it took a =
decade of slump and=20
            the second world war to pull it out again. It is fanciful to =
hope=20
            that President Bush&#8217;s war on terrorism, coming at the =
end of the=20
            greatest boom in history, will have a similar effect on the =
US=20
            economy as the second world war did, coming on the heels of =
the=20
            great depression. <BR><BR>A 1930s-style slump remains =
extremely=20
            unlikely. But, when America does eventually pull out of this =

            recession, it is likely to find that it will have changed=20
            everything. Its pre-eminence in the global economy will no =
longer be=20
            taken for granted. At the height of the mania, America =
financed its=20
            Internet speculations by flogging off its much-derided =
&#8216;old economy&#8217;=20
            to anybody who would take it. Already many of its utilities =
have=20
            been bought by the French and Germans, its supermarkets by =
the Dutch=20
            and Belgians, its bankrupt steel industry by the Brazilians. =

            <BR><BR>And then there is China. This year its economy will =
grow by=20
            8 per cent, and with the vast majority of its GDP dependent =
upon=20
            domestic trade, it remains well insulated from the downturn =
in the=20
            global economy. Moreover, earlier this month China joined =
the World=20
            Trade Organisation, a momentous event utterly eclipsed by =
events in=20
            America. With the United States spiralling into recession =
and=20
            distracted by its war on terrorism, much of Asia will now =
look to=20
            China to lead it out of its slump. A new economic superpower =
may be=20
            about to emerge. <BR><BR>America has only itself to blame =
for the=20
            predicament it finds itself in. It is paying the penalty for =
two=20
            decades of uncritical faith in the stock market. For the =
second time=20
            in 100 years, it has sacrificed economic stability to the =
greed of=20
            the financial community. Surveying the carnage wreaked upon =
the US=20
            economy in the aftermath of the 1929 stock market crash, =
Franklin=20
            Delano Roosevelt observed, &#8216;We have always known that =
heedless=20
            self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad =
economics.&#8217;=20
            But there are some lessons, it seems, that we are destined =
never to=20
            learn. </SPAN>
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    <TD bgColor=3D#ccccff vAlign=3Dcenter><A=20
      =
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current&amp;issue=3D2001-09-29&amp;id=3D1132"><FONT=20
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      size=3D2>&nbsp;Youthful idiot </FONT></A></TD>
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    <TD bgColor=3D#666666><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
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width=3D150></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D1></TD></TR>
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    <TD bgColor=3D#000000 rowSpan=3D2><IMG border=3D0 height=3D19=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD bgColor=3D#ccccff vAlign=3Dcenter><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/article.php3?table=3Dold&amp;section=3D=
current&amp;issue=3D2001-09-29&amp;id=3D1133"><FONT=20
      class=3Dasidemenuarticle face=3D"Times New Roman, Times, serif"=20
      size=3D2>&nbsp;How America went for broke </FONT></A></TD>
    <TD bgColor=3D#000000 rowSpan=3D2><IMG border=3D0 height=3D19=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D18=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D1></TD></TR>
  <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
    <TD bgColor=3D#666666><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D150></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D1></TD></TR>
  <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
    <TD bgColor=3D#000000 rowSpan=3D2><IMG border=3D0 height=3D19=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD bgColor=3D#ccccff vAlign=3Dcenter><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/article.php3?table=3Dold&amp;section=3D=
current&amp;issue=3D2001-09-29&amp;id=3D1134"><FONT=20
      class=3Dasidemenuarticle face=3D"Times New Roman, Times, serif"=20
      size=3D2>&nbsp;Fundamentally wrong </FONT></A></TD>
    <TD bgColor=3D#000000 rowSpan=3D2><IMG border=3D0 height=3D19=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D18=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D1></TD></TR>
  <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
    <TD bgColor=3D#666666><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D150></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D1></TD></TR>
  <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
    <TD bgColor=3D#000000 rowSpan=3D2><IMG border=3D0 height=3D19=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD bgColor=3D#ccccff vAlign=3Dcenter><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/article.php3?table=3Dold&amp;section=3D=
current&amp;issue=3D2001-09-29&amp;id=3D1135"><FONT=20
      class=3Dasidemenuarticle face=3D"Times New Roman, Times, serif"=20
      size=3D2>&nbsp;Tony the lionheart </FONT></A></TD>
    <TD bgColor=3D#000000 rowSpan=3D2><IMG border=3D0 height=3D19=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D18=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D1></TD></TR>
  <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
    <TD bgColor=3D#666666><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D150></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D1></TD></TR>
  <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
    <TD bgColor=3D#000000 rowSpan=3D2><IMG border=3D0 height=3D19=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD bgColor=3D#ccccff vAlign=3Dcenter><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/article.php3?table=3Dold&amp;section=3D=
current&amp;issue=3D2001-09-29&amp;id=3D1136"><FONT=20
      class=3Dasidemenuarticle face=3D"Times New Roman, Times, serif"=20
      size=3D2>&nbsp;Breakfast with the killers </FONT></A></TD>
    <TD bgColor=3D#000000 rowSpan=3D2><IMG border=3D0 height=3D19=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D18=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D1></TD></TR>
  <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
    <TD bgColor=3D#666666><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D150></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D1></TD></TR>
  <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
    <TD bgColor=3D#000000 rowSpan=3D2><IMG border=3D0 height=3D19=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD bgColor=3D#ccccff vAlign=3Dcenter><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/article.php3?table=3Dold&amp;section=3D=
current&amp;issue=3D2001-09-29&amp;id=3D1137"><FONT=20
      class=3Dasidemenuarticle face=3D"Times New Roman, Times, serif"=20
      size=3D2>&nbsp;Sex and the city </FONT></A></TD>
    <TD bgColor=3D#000000 rowSpan=3D2><IMG border=3D0 height=3D19=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D18=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D1></TD></TR>
  <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
    <TD bgColor=3D#666666><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D150></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D1></TD></TR>
  <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
    <TD bgColor=3D#000000 rowSpan=3D2><IMG border=3D0 height=3D19=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD bgColor=3D#ccccff vAlign=3Dcenter><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/article.php3?table=3Dold&amp;section=3D=
current&amp;issue=3D2001-09-29&amp;id=3D1138"><FONT=20
      class=3Dasidemenuarticle face=3D"Times New Roman, Times, serif"=20
      size=3D2>&nbsp;Why we must stick by America </FONT></A></TD>
    <TD bgColor=3D#000000 rowSpan=3D2><IMG border=3D0 height=3D19=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D18=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D1></TD></TR>
  <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
    <TD bgColor=3D#666666><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D150></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D1></TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; =
width=3D150></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"; width=3D1></TD>
    <TD><IMG border=3D0 height=3D1=20
      src=3D"http://www.spectator.co.uk/images/shim.gif"=20
width=3D1></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></SPAN><SPAN id=3DLayer3=20
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