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Norm: If I had the time and inclination, I could get all the old vs
new convergnece factors and cheapest to deliver bond prices and try
to figure it but...
The recalculated all-time high on the 6% notional is 11210 or so. So
that basically matches the 13507 high on the old contract. so I
would have to guess 11016-11100 would be closer to 134 and change on
the old contract.
My target is 11725 for 3/11/02. 12/19/01 will be a significant high
as well.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxx> wrote:
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Dorothy K. Carter" <dorothy.carter@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2001 2:49 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] SPZ short term target given
>
>
> > The highest target I had on Dec bond was 108 9/32 108 29/32
keep in
> mind
> > with new stimulus pkg Bush spoke of USA will be back in deficit
> > spending.. long end won't like that.....
>
> NW: I have long term unfulled target for T-Bonds up to 110 1/2 -
111. I think
> that works out to about 144 on the old 8% contract. Anyone know how
to
> calculate that?
>
> Thanks,
>
> Norman
>
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2001 2:46 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPZ short term target given
> >
> >
> > > Sorry unemployment Friday (lost track of my days).
> > >
> > > Does anyone have a good feel for the bonds, it "feels like"
someone is
> > > caught (squeezed) similar to 1998 even though as posted the
charts have
> > > supported higher levels?
> > >
> > > Ben, any scuttlebut out there. If funds moving from bonds to
stocks
> > apost
> > > of yours a week or so ago), why the continued rise?
> > > don ewers
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2001 11:45 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] SPZ short term target given
> > >
> > >
> > > > Lee,
> > > > I would watch the 6/4 ma channels as a clue (no sell signals
yet)?
> The
> > > PTI
> > > > also is still falling, now to 29 (on the 60min). Note the
second
> ellipse
> > > has
> > > > not locked yet either so higher is certainly possible as Ben
just
> > > mentioned,
> > > > but for now the 50% has been met. Remember we have employment
> tomorrow
> > > > everyone.
> > > > don ewers
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Lee Morris" <LMorris@xxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2001 11:17 AM
> > > > Subject: RE: [RT] SPZ short term target given
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > don and dorothy look like you nailed it, now the big
question - is
> > this
> > > > > still a countertrend - do we retest the lows or are we off
to the
> > > > races????
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: Dorothy Carter [mailto:dorothy.carter@x...]
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2001 12:10 PM
> > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] SPZ short term target given
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > I got the upside target the other day and did not
believe it..
> > > 1067.25
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: profitok
> > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2001 12:04 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] SPZ short term target given
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > looks like I left a LOT of money on the table today
> > > > > Ben
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: Don Thompson
> > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2001 10:56 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] SPZ short term target given
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > The Up close target is about 1070 and if its going to
be a
> down
> > > > close
> > > > > then about 1060.
> > > > > 85% Odds are very good odds, Also I remind my self a
higher
> > high
> > > is
> > > > > defined as just a tick.
> > > > >
> > > > > The specialist problem is good to know about.
> > > > >
> > > > > Don
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: Dorothy Carter
> > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2001 10:40 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] SPZ short term target given
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > One thing to keep in mind is that the
> specialists/marketmakers
> > > are
> > > > > the true insiders as stocks get back into gaps and ranges
of 9-17
> > ...of
> > > > > where they were forced to buy on way down they will unload
those
> > > > > positions..... which is why if long one would want to keep
close
> > stops.
> > > > > define higher how much higher??? 85% is pretty good odds
to what
> > upside
> > > > > target???
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: Don Thompson
> > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2001 10:33 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] SPZ short term target given
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Dorothy,
> > > > >
> > > > > I have 85% odds of a higher high in S&P500,
but... a 40%
> > > chance
> > > > of
> > > > > a higher close..
> > > > > A down closer target is about 1060 on average..
Both Ben
> and
> > > > > yourself are looking for
> > > > > less of a high.. interesting.
> > > > >
> > > > > Don
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: Dorothy Carter
> > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2001 10:16 AM
> > > > > Subject: Fw: [RT] SPZ short term target given
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Even though they just gunned and technically
cxld
> downside
> > > > > target if mkt reverses and takes out today's low the odds
are still
> > that
> > > > > target will be met.. just watch to see
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: Dorothy K. Carter
> > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2001 9:57 AM
> > > > > Subject: [RT] SPZ short term target given
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > 1024.25 as long as 1053.25 is not touched
> > > > >
> > > > >
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