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Tony: you've been attaching some really slick charts to your emails. I
was planning to annotate your 20-year chart and discuss some alternative
thoughts; however, the chart you sent had too many of your lines to make
my annotations legible. Is it possible for you to send me a chart like
that without you markings? Also, if you have control of the layout, can
you eliminate the years to the right of the graphic that have no data as
of yet; e.g., years 2002 - 2015? One thing that troubles me, and we've
discussed it only briefly in past emails, is the semi-log format and the
viability of forecasting with it. I know you quoted the apporval of Edwards
and Magee, but I still have reservations since the chart looks totally
different without the vertical log scale. To me, that an exception to the
rule. For example, if I were to present a chart to you with a horizontal
log scale and made predictions, would those predictions be valid? I'm playing
the "Devils Advocate" here and there's not need for you to respond. I'm
really externalizing some thoughts that for those of us who are interested
to ponder.
Ralph
Tony Pylypuk wrote:
Clyde
Lee wrote: "Are we getting ready
to go into a stagnation period as we did from 1965 until 1982. Has
this "bubble" and now the terrorist attack hit us hard enough to cause
our economy to stagnate for 15 to 20 years???" That
certainly seems possible. As I have noted previously, since 1929
we seem to have alternated between 15 year contractions and 20 year expansions.
Attached is the INDU chart posted two weeks ago, updated for subsequent
trading. Regards, Tony
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