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> I am reminded of what my good friend (and partner) who worked in
the pits
> for 11 years, mentioned yesterday, "in bear markets these bad
things always
> seem to happen".
Interesting you should say that. If you look at the long term Nikkei
chart, the Nick Leeson debacle and the Kobe earthquake both occurred
in Jan 95. The Nikkei topped at 39K 12/89 initially dropped nearly
50% down to nearly 20K into 10/90, bounced back to 27K and collapsed
nearly 50% again in an apparent 3rd into late summer 92. The bounce
into mid 94 made it to 21K. I believe Nick bought the Nikkei all the
way down from 20K and blew out as it crumbled to sub 17K on the
earthquake. Anyways the Nikkei basically retested the previoius low
at 14K before screaming up into mid-96.
Sort of similar to the current position of the NDX although the NDX
just took out its previous April lows.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> I should also say I do not think this list is a "1929 convention"
as you
> have billed it. Posts from various perspectives are only reporting
what
> their charts or techiques, indicate. They do not "want" the market
to go
> down, many are just reporting what the indicators say presently.
>
> Valuations are still expensive for many stocks if you chose to look
at the
> fundamentals. As Earl posted some time ago when GE was still in
the low
> 40's, "the mothership", what happens when it starts to fold. The
economy
> which was weak before, has taken a severe blow and the outcome of
lower
> prices will "likely" occur (has occured). Earnings past and present
just
> cannot support these prices. In that regard CNBC has done a dis-
service to
> the American public.
>
> I am reminded of what my good friend (and partner) who worked in
the pits
> for 11 years, mentioned yesterday, "in bear markets these bad
things always
> seem to happen".
>
> End of the world no, just a long awaited correction to a parobolic
bubble of
> historic proportions. I have always favored the long side but when
I look at
> my trades, the short side are the winners generally, that in itself
tells me
> something.
> don ewers
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Kent Rollins" <kentr@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, September 18, 2001 12:21 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DJIA & SPX Key Levels and Long Term Forecasts - NW
>
>
> > Humor? OK, next time I'll add some Elliot Wavery.
> >
> > As for my prediction, given that we recently had a convention of
the '29
> > Club on this list and SOME PEOPLE are now predicting that the end
of
> United
> > States is at hand, I predict that yesterday was the bottom and we
move up
> > slowly from here.
> >
> > Then again...recent events may have destroyed consumer spending
which was
> > the only thing keeping us out of recession, so we may continue
down.
> >
> > Or capital spending could recover as consumer spending falls off
and the
> > market may just move sideways.
> >
> > There. That's my prediction.
> >
> > I didn't spend nearly as much time working on my prediction as
you did on
> > yours, but they're both worth about the same thing.
> >
> > Kent
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