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The attached picture was presented to a
Houston investors
group on September 8, 2001.
I did not do an analysis on the SP but this
picture of the
DJIA may give some idea of what has
happened in the past
under MARKET (nor world) conditions that
were similar to
that which had happened up to that
time.
Translated into SP terms on today's ratio
would give the
SP (cash) a target in the
800-870 area. Not quite as
bad as NW's target but pointing to that
direction.
Anything lower than this will really point
to a situation
that we have not faced in this market since
1921. Not saying
that it can't happened, just that up to now
it hasn't.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Norman
Winski
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, September 18, 2001
10:28
Subject: Re: [RT] DJIA & SPX Key
Levels and Long Term Forecasts - NW
----- Original Message -----From: "Daniel
Goncharoff" <<A
href="mailto:thegonch@xxxxxxxxxx";>thegonch@xxxxxxxxxx>To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent:
Tuesday, September 18, 2001 10:05 AMSubject: Re: [RT] DJIA & SPX Key
Levels and Long Term Forecasts - NW> Norman>> I
took your point to be that we will hit 782 one way or another. If we>
come off it ("if 782 holds") we go to all time highs eventually, and>
nothing bad happens to the USA. If we don't hold 782, we keep falling>
and something bad happens to the USA.DanG,NW: If the 782
scenario is correct, there were be some major dire news atthe time the SPX
reaches 782 but that will be a major low.>> What I don't
understand is how long this 782 level matters. For example,> if we
touch 782 and then dip below it 12-24 months later in a sideways>
environment, are you predicting market/national apocalypse?NW: If
we dip siginficantly below 782 then I was wrong about this
scenario.Analyzing the market is much like playing Name That Tune. After a
few notes,one can take an educated guess if you know the "tune". If
I don't know, Idon't play. The market either follows the expected pattern
or it doesn't.
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