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Its pretty much a given that when a nation reaches a certain point of
economic wealth, the fertility rate declines. I know its a problem
in Scandinavia even with their open sexual practices and even in
Italy. I'm sure over the next decade, everyone here will be up in
arms about the expanding Latino population and people will draw
straight line projections showing how they overrun the planet in the
20 years, just as the Arabs and Japanese were going to take over the
world economy in the 70s and 80s. Of course, once the Latinos attain
a certain standard of living, they too will turn their focus on
something other than procreation. As far as the Chinese though, I
wouldn't be surprised if their practice of female infanticide over
the past 30 years causes a sudden drop-off in population leaving them
with nothing but alot of frustrated males.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, ChasWaring <cwwaring@xxxx> wrote:
> Well, while this may a current anathema to our Japanese friends -
next door
> with a 2.1+ percent birthrate are 1.2 billion people...It's a
similar
> situation to Texas...we won the battle of the alamo but now the
fastest
> growing popupation in texas is the Latino community...and we need
these new
> energetic, hard working people for the same reasons described here.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <bruce.larson@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Monday, September 10, 2001 4:00 PM
> Subject: [RT] Re: Japan's economic problems
>
>
> > Japan's current economic problems are clearly demographic. Japan
has
> > both one the oldest median age and lowest fertility rate in the
> > world. No one's consuming and everyone's saving. In 1985, there
> > were more than twice as many aged 0-14 as there were 65 and up.
Now
> > the 65 and up outstrip the young. This demographic imbalance is
> > going to get alot worse. The current fertility rate in Japan is
1.4
> > children per adult female; 2.1 is needed for a stable population.
> > Even the official forecasters are expecting Japan's population to
be
> > cut in half by the next century. As long as no one's having
babies
> > in Japan and immigration is disallowed, deflation will persist.
> > Japan's public debt now stands at 130% of GDP. That compares to
> > about 40% of GDP for the US I believe. The debt load is going to
> > become even more astronomical as the population gets older and
> > requires more social services. And soon there'll be no one left
to
> > pay it back. And guess who owns all the debt? The Japanese
banks.
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Caveat: I do not consider myself to be have much depth of
knowledge
> > > regarding Japan.
> > >
> > > I would suggest that Japan has 3 problems at the root of its
> > economic
> > > problems: stock market bubble, real estate bubble, and
manufacturing
> > > competition from Asia and China. The later seems to be
resulting in
> > both
> > > deflation and unemployment in Japan not to mention considerable
> > trade
> > > friction, especially with China. (The US is extremely
vulnerable to
> > the same
> > > set of problems with respect to imports from China and other
> > countries.) The
> > > Japanese have typically adapted to international manufacturing
> > imbalances by
> > > building factories off-shore. This has worked very well for
Japanese
> > > manufacturers in Asia ex-China, however China's history with
Japan
> > is one
> > > which has tended to create a less hospitable environment for
> > Japanese
> > > manufacturing investment. Thus, heavy imports from China are not
> > offset by
> > > strong manufacturing earnings.
> > >
> > > I think you are correct that homogeneity has been a two edged
> > sword ... the
> > > plus side has been social stability and the minus side has been
> > ineffectual
> > > problem solving. By contrast, facing and solving problems when
> > forced to do
> > > so, has been a particular strength in the US. There seems to be
some
> > > evidence that Kozumi (sp?) and others may find strong
nationalism
> > to be a
> > > politically more palatable route than facing the problems. This
> > could lead
> > > to friction between Japan and the rest of Asia (particularly
China)
> > and even
> > > with the US.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Daniel Goncharoff" <thegonch@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Monday, September 10, 2001 7:19 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and regulation
> > >
> > >
> > > > Earl
> > > >
> > > > I have a different understanding of what has happened in
Japan. I
> > > > thought the drop in Japan was caused by two factors, a massive
> > real
> > > > estate bubble combined with a real plateau in manufacturing.
Only
> > when
> > > > the bubble burst did it become clear that the real economy was
> > > > deteriorating, and it never found a bottom.
> > > >
> > > > I also think the Japanese would disagree that their
homogeneity
> > is a
> > > > strength -- they are starting to come to the opinion that it
is
> > the
> > > > reason they 'can't get up'. There is no way to dispose of old
> > baggage...
> > > >
> > > > As for 1929, I think the similarities are there. Raw material
> > producers
> > > > have been struggling with deflation. The 'popular' (populist?)
> > view
> > > > seems to favor less globalisation rather than more. There is
no
> > specific
> > > > global military threat, so the developed countries have more
> > incentive
> > > > to fight over differences rather than smooth them over.
Traumatic
> > events
> > > > (by definition?) come when you don't expect them.
> > > >
> > > > Regards
> > > > DanG
> > > >
> > > > Earl Adamy wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Rakesh,
> > > > >
> > > > > As a trader I use technical analysis exclusively. My bias
toward
> > > technical
> > > > > analysis carries into longer term investing except when I
> > believe there
> > > are
> > > > > extreme conditions in the market. I also have long had an
> > interest in
> > > long
> > > > > term market history because I do believe that there are
lessons
> > to be
> > > > > learned from history and that markets move from one extreme
to
> > another
> > > and
> > > > > back. However first and foremost in trading and investing is
> > capital
> > > > > preservation. Thus I was a couple of years early in
starting to
> > ease out
> > > of
> > > > > equity investments and I may be a couple of years late in
> > easing back
> > > in.
> > > > >
> > > > > I believe that there are many similarities between the
current
> > US market
> > > and
> > > > > both the Japanese and post-crash (29) US market. There are
also
> > many
> > > > > differences ... one is the dependency of the US economy on
> > services (the
> > > > > Japanese and 29 economies were manufacturing based) and
another
> > is the
> > > more
> > > > > homogeneous social makeup of the Japanese society. The
later is
> > > significant
> > > > > because the Japanese (and to a lesser degree European)
social
> > orders are
> > > > > less driven by free wheeling capitalism which I believe has
> > been carried
> > > to
> > > > > an extreme in the US and (particularly in Japan) the
> > homogeneous society
> > > has
> > > > > eased the financial pain of depression. Never-the-less
there is
> > a
> > > creative
> > > > > and free wheeling spirit here which should not be
> > underestimated because
> > > it
> > > > > has proven itself capable of adapting to (and leading)
> > tremendous
> > > challenge
> > > > > and change for several centuries.
> > > > >
> > > > > Still, in my mind, the excesses have been carried so far
over a
> > period
> > > of
> > > > > decades that there must be a long/steep corrective period.
The
> > pain will
> > > > > happen ... it is up to those attempting to manage the
economy
> > whether
> > > the
> > > > > correction will be long or will be deep. In the US I would
add
> > that
> > > there
> > > > > has been a general preference for the public rather than
> > business to
> > > take
> > > > > the brunt of economic pain e.g. the banks are profiting
> > handsomely on
> > > rate
> > > > > spreads while the public is paying relatively high rates for
> > credit.
> > > > >
> > > > > All selling machines are always in gear and Wall Street is
no
> > exception.
> > > > > When sales slow and inventories pile up at car dealers you
> > don't hear
> > > them
> > > > > running negative advertising, neither does Wall Street. The
> > astute
> > > investor
> > > > > will take some independent measures and reach conclusions
> > independent of
> > > the
> > > > > hype.
> > > > >
> > > > > As for investing in a major turn in the markets, on
technical
> > basis I
> > > will
> > > > > need to see weekly charts with well established bullish
trends
> > > (particularly
> > > > > good looking, bullish linear regression channels) and on a
> > fundamental
> > > basis
> > > > > I want to see companies with strong market positions, honest
> > accounting
> > > and
> > > > > good values in the stocks in which I invest ... this
requires a
> > major
> > > mind
> > > > > shift from investing in markets which are already in a
steadily
> > rising
> > > bull
> > > > > market.
> > > > >
> > > > > What I really expect to see is the time come when
absolutely no
> > one
> > > wants to
> > > > > own stocks (this last happened in the 30's and 40's) and
that
> > is when I
> > > > > expect to start shopping for real bargains with real
earnings
> > and real
> > > > > dividends. In the interim, I continue to like bonds and
believe
> > they are
> > > > > probably a double over the next 5-10 years (look at the
history
> > of
> > > interest
> > > > > rates in the 30's and modern Japan). I remain undecided on
> > currency
> > > issues
> > > > > because I think the issues are more degrees of pain rather
than
> > a safe
> > > > > haven. If world economic woes bring a rise in nationalism
and
> > > > > political/social dislocation (I think this is a good
> > possibility), arms
> > > > > makers may lead an economic rebound.
> > > > >
> > > > > More than anything else, one must continuously observe
> > (independently of
> > > the
> > > > > media), think, and adapt to conditions as they unfold.
> > > > >
> > > > > Earl
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Rakesh Sahgal" <rsahgal@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Sunday, September 09, 2001 8:08 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and
regulation
> > > > >
> > > > > > Earl,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > In your write up on the prospects for the economy in your
> > country you
> > > have
> > > > > > primarily relied upon fundamental concerns(if I
understand you
> > > correctly)
> > > > > > which are coming to the fore now, rather being touted by
the
> > salesmen
> > > of
> > > > > > Wall St. now when the markets have already tanked.
> > > > > > These factors were not being cited by Wall St. gurus and
their
> > > underlings
> > > > > > globally earlier on, when the markets were touching the
skies.
> > > > > > Cant one infer from these shenanigans that "they" have
> > exhausted
> > > > > > inventories and and are now re-stocking or is this
assumption
> > > erroneous?
> > > > > > This I ask in light of the fact that sooner than later the
> > easing
> > > > > > liiquidity conditions will make themselves felt in the
> > economy. Also
> > > how
> > > > > > relevant are the comparisons of the U.S economy with the
> > Japanese
> > > economy
> > > > > > with their structural differences( or am I again ignorant
of
> > the
> > > > > similarities)?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Once Ira had posted that the Wall St. selling machine
always
> > finds
> > > > > > stories/concepts to tout after the current rage is dead
and
> > buried.
> > > Are
> > > > > you
> > > > > > saying that the conditions are going to be so dire that
the
> > markets
> > > are
> > > > > not
> > > > > > going to reward performance and/or the prospects of
> > performance of the
> > > > > next
> > > > > > great "find"?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > You further state in your message below, that you are
> > willing to
> > > change
> > > > > > your analysis contingent upon contrary evidence emerging.
> > Given your
> > > very
> > > > > > strong views what would you term conclusive evidence
keeping
> > in view
> > > the
> > > > > > fact the charts will essentially lead the economy and
> > corporate
> > > > > > performance? Would you wait for confirmatory economic data
> > and enter
> > > the
> > > > > > markets on pull backs in the new trend or trade major
support
> > > > > > points/projections with stop losses?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Look forward to your comments.
> > > > > > Regards.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Rakesh
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > At 08:06 AM 9/8/01 -0600, you wrote:
> > > > > > >Yes, that was a typo, I was referring to the
introduction of
> > single
> > > stock
> > > > > > >futures. I do not disagree with your observations as they
> > relate to
> > > > > current
> > > > > > >market conditions. My comments are directed toward
conditions
> > > existing in
> > > > > a
> > > > > > >major cyclical bear market of the type and scope we have
not
> > seen for
> > > > > nearly
> > > > > > >a century. Should those conditions emerge, I believe
that the
> > > enthusiasm
> > > > > > >for, and regulation of, derivatives will change markedly.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >I should, perhaps, add a few caveats regarding my
opinions.
> > I am
> > > > > personally
> > > > > > >extremely bearish in my view of the equity markets for
the
> > next
> > > decade.
> > > > > This
> > > > > > >is reflected in the fact that my investments have been
100%
> > in long
> > > term
> > > > > > >treasuries and bond funds for well over a year now and I
am
> > even now
> > > > > > >completing the process of switching bond funds (most of
> > which contain
> > > > > GSE's
> > > > > > >and corporates) for treasuries. Futures trading is
another
> > matter, I
> > > > > don't
> > > > > > >care if the market goes up or down as long as it does
one or
> > the
> > > other,
> > > > > > >preferably in a trending manner. Finally, my investment
hat
> > is in no
> > > way
> > > > > > >married to the bear case should strong evidence emerge
to the
> > > contrary,
> > > > > > >however I am in no way interested in trying to time my
> > investments to
> > > > > catch
> > > > > > >the absolute bottom in this market.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >Earl
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > >From: <I4Lothian@xxxx>
> > > > > > >To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > >Sent: Saturday, September 08, 2001 7:32 AM
> > > > > > >Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and
regulation
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Earl:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > With all due respect, stock "index" futures have been
a
> > huge
> > > success.
> > > > > I
> > > > > > > > believe you wish to be skeptical of single stock
> > futures. And
> > > given
> > > > > then
> > > > > > > > attendance and interest shown by the futures and
> > securities
> > > industry
> > > > > this
> > > > > > > > week at a seminar in Chicago by the Futures Industry
> > Association,
> > > I
> > > > > beg to
> > > > > > > > differ with your conclusion.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Single Stock Futures, in my opinion, will be the
single
> > largest
> > > new
> > > > > > >product
> > > > > > > > we have ever seen introduced. There will be three
> > exchanges in
> > > the
> > > > > U.S.
> > > > > > > > offering them, a very aggressive and with it Nasdaq-
> > LIFFE, the yet
> > > to
> > > > > be
> > > > > > > > named but formidable Chicago Joint Venture of the
> > CBOE/CME/CBOT
> > > and
> > > > > the
> > > > > > >just
> > > > > > > > announced AMEX. What product have we had launched by
> > three
> > > exchanges
> > > > > all
> > > > > > >at
> > > > > > > > the same time?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Keep in mind that the banks wanted nothing to do with
the
> > CBOT
> > > when
> > > > > they
> > > > > > > > launched the bonds. Six months later they were
knocking
> > down the
> > > > > doors
> > > > > > >for
> > > > > > > > memberships and floor space. Look at the influence of
> > stock
> > > volumes
> > > > > from
> > > > > > > > tine introduction of options trading in the 1970s and
> > stock index
> > > > > futures
> > > > > > >in
> > > > > > > > the 1980s. Volume took off and never looked back.
> > Nearly 1/3 of
> > > the
> > > > > > >weekly
> > > > > > > > NYSE volume comes from program trading alone.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > The new single stock futures will offer tremendous
> > capital and
> > > > > operational
> > > > > > > > efficiencies to some of the largest players in the
> > industry. No
> > > more
> > > > > > >waiting
> > > > > > > > t+3 for stocks to settle. Same day settlement.
Marked
> > to the
> > > market
> > > > > at
> > > > > > >the
> > > > > > > > same clearing house, the OCC, for all the single stock
> > futures and
> > > > > options
> > > > > > > > trading. Same clearing house for settlement and
delivery
> > of
> > > options
> > > > > and
> > > > > > > > futures contracts.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Take then that the biggest corporate names in the
world
> > are U.S.
> > > > > companies
> > > > > > > > that can be traded as SSF. Take then that the U.S.
> > capital
> > > markets
> > > > > are
> > > > > > >the
> > > > > > > > best in the world in terms of legal certainty,
regulation
> > and
> > > > > fairness.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > These are all parts of the equation why single stock
> > futures will
> > > > > work.
> > > > > > >Will
> > > > > > > > they take volume from stocks? Yes and no. That same
> > argument was
> > > > > made
> > > > > > >when
> > > > > > > > options and indexes were introduced and they only
added
> > to the
> > > > > liquidity
> > > > > > >of
> > > > > > > > the market. With the movement of time we have been
able
> > to
> > > introduce
> > > > > > >better
> > > > > > > > and better contracts to specifically meet the needs of
> > traders,
> > > > > hedgers
> > > > > > >and
> > > > > > > > investors. We no longer need to run into gold or
> > soybeans to
> > > hedge
> > > > > our
> > > > > > > > inflation or deflation risk. These tools will only
make
> > what
> > > people
> > > > > want
> > > > > > >to
> > > > > > > > do, and do, more efficient.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > And I for one and going to do my best to make sure
they
> > will be
> > > > > > >successful.
> > > > > > > > Part of the reason I write my daily industry
newsletter
> > is to help
> > > > > people
> > > > > > >in
> > > > > > > > the futures and securities industry manage the changes
> > all around
> > > us.
> > > > > Just
> > > > > > >in
> > > > > > > > the last week I have had a President and CEO of a U.S.
> > exchange
> > > sign
> > > > > up
> > > > > > >for
> > > > > > > > the letter. A Senior Vice President of one of the
Chicago
> > > exchanges
> > > > > > >signed
> > > > > > > > up. A large division of a clearing FCM will shortly
be
> > announcing
> > > > > they
> > > > > > >are
> > > > > > > > going to license my letter to offer to their clients
and
> > to
> > > attract
> > > > > new
> > > > > > > > clients. They will be offering it at a single stock
> > futures
> > > > > newsletter.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > So, all the signs I see say that these new products
are
> > going to
> > > work.
> > > > > > >And
> > > > > > > > as the Nasdaq-LIFFE said, they are going to "make"
them
> > work. I
> > > have
> > > > > > >never
> > > > > > > > seen an exchange so confident, so focused on the good
of
> > the
> > > customer,
> > > > > so
> > > > > > > > focused on offering a level playing field for all
> > participants as
> > > the
> > > > > > > > Nasdaq-LIFFE. And I believe them.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > John J. Lothian
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Disclosure: Futures trading involves financial risk,
lots
> > of it!
> > > John
> > > > > J.
> > > > > > > > Lothian is the President of the Electronic Trading
> > Division of The
> > > > > Price
> > > > > > > > Futures Group, Inc., an Introducing Broker clearing
Man
> > Financial
> > > Inc.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > In a message dated 9/8/01 7:17:41 AM Central Daylight
> > Time,
> > > > > > >eadamy@xxxx
> > > > > > > > writes:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > << I doubt that stock index futures are going to get
very
> > far off
> > > the
> > > > > > >ground.
> > > > > > > > Essentially, stock index futures (low margin and high
> > leverage)
> > > are
> > > > > the
> > > > > > >last
> > > > > > > > nail in the coffin of post-29 market regulation. I
> > believe that
> > > we
> > > > > are in
> > > > > > > > the early stages of a major cyclical bear market and
I
> > expect to
> > > see
> > > > > > >stock
> > > > > > > > market volumes diminish to levels not seen in
decades as
> > a
> > > byproduct
> > > > > of
> > > > > > > > severe price declines ... the pendulum always swings
> > from one
> > > extreme
> > > > > to
> > > > > > >the
> > > > > > > > other. I further expect that liquidity in the futures
> > and options
> > > > > markets
> > > > > > > > will suffer.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I find it especially ironic that the post-29 market
and
> > banking
> > > > > > >regulations
> > > > > > > > were removed just as the markets moved to such
excess.
> > The fact
> > > that
> > > > > > >these
> > > > > > > > regulations were seen to be inhibiting the upward
move
> > of the
> > > markets
> > > > > > >should
> > > > > > > > have been a warning rather than a reason to remove
the
> > > regulations.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Earl >>
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > >realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > >
> > > > > Rakesh
> > > > > > Sahgal
> > > > > >
> > > C
> > > > > > -165(1st Floor), Greater Kailash - I,
> > > > > >
> > > > > New
> > > > > > Delhi - 110 048
> > > > > >
> > > > > India.
> > > > > >
> > > > > Tel.:
> > > > > > 91-11-647-6462,91-11-643-0010
> > > > > >
> > > > > eMail:
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> > 40eth.net><http:
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> > > //eudora.voicecontact.com/vc3/index.html?rakeshsahgal%
> > 40eth.net><http://www.
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