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Ralph,
With the principle of alternation in mind, how does the current market
compare with the 1873 top? Following that top, there was 23 years of
boomlets and busts within the confines of a long shallow recession -
depression economy.
Short term, I would agree that a bounce is a good probability. However,
on a risk reward basis, I think that Coffee and Cotton are more interesting
for a buy on Mon. - Tues. than the stock maket.
Cheers,
Norman
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ralph Volpe" <rjv@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, September 09, 2001 4:15 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] 1929 Comparisons
> A chart was recently disseminated that was supposed to show the
similarities
> of the 1929 crash to the market today. Let me comment on that very
briefly --
> it's bunk!
>
> The collapse today has so far been a token crash that's primarily
affecting
> the tech stocks. Let me point out that the Dow has only lost 17 percent in
> nearly 21 months (and that's a good Fib. relationship). Investors in 1929
> would have been ecstatic with that type of decline. As well, the S&P500
has
> lost 25 percent in the same time period. If you compare years 2000/2001
> against 1929 you'll see that there's a world of a difference in price
> deterioration.
>
> Also, you're drawing trend lines on a semi-logarithmic scale and I don't
know
> if that's an accurate way to arrive at comparisons. For example, Back in
1929
> the S&P lost 50% in a month after the '29 top and up to 60% only a few
months
> later. The flaw in such comparisons is simple: you can't compare apples to
> oranges -- all things considered, it's impossible to draw comparisons. For
> example, the universe of traders and trading vehicles are totally
different,
> commodity prices may be totally different, and the government has more
> accurate data to proactively involve themselves at an earlier stage. On a
> final note, even though the scale in the gif were semi-logarithmic there
> wasn't any adjustment in price to account for inflation --- and that makes
a
> world of a difference. And, although I'm into celestial influences, are
they
> the same? Let's ask those who follow this discipline.
>
> On a note I'm happy there's so much negativity in RT. Why? I see a nice
> counter wave here that I think will carry for several weeks. I'm basing
this
> on an Elliot pattern and some Fib relationships that may hold. So, with
all
> this negativity, it may be a great contrarian investment.
>
> Ralph
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
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