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So what would precipitate that crash?
Rising economies relative to the US requiring the Interest rates in the US
to rise to attract funds to the Dollar? Which might happen in a low growth
environment in the US...stagflation?
A loss of confidence in the US markets/economy? again requiring an increase
in US rates, also at a sub optimal time..maybe less of a problem as the
other economies/currencies are not all that attractive on a realtive basis.
It seems to me that the Fed and it counterparts have acted to reflate the
world economies. The longer term bond prices seem to reflect that thinking,
so interest rates are going up anyway and may affect the thinking in one and
two above.
Reflexive stuff...
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, September 05, 2001 10:41 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] There Are No Rules!!
> If 73, 74 are to be repeated, then you need a crash in the dollar which
will
> create an inflationary environment and a rise in cost for everything
> manufactured out of the country and imported. this is almost everything
we
> use. Look at the labels on your cloths, shoes, auto parts, or the items
you buy
> at the hardware or other stores. made in China, Thailand, the
Philippines,
> Japan, and many other countries. I even have a shirt that was made in
Iran.
> Then what happens to gold and silver and other hard asset plays. Just
some
> thoughts on what could occur. Ira.
>
> James Alvis wrote:
>
> > The bear market of 1974 not only provided a chance to buy stocks with 6
PE
> > and a 6% dividend yield; it produced a market psychology that many of
> > today's younger traders might find almost unimaginable. Following the
> > "go-go" market top in 1969, the market decline culminated in a slow
grind
> > lower, month after disappointing month, until bullish psychology was
> > completely dashed. At the bottom, very few people were interested in
owning
> > stocks. Many mutual funds (darlings of the 60's) traded below their net
> > asset value on very low volume. Many owners of such funds could barely
> > bring themselves to check the price of their funds in the Sunday paper
since
> > they grew to expect the values would invariably be unchanged to lower.
> > Unlike 1987 or 1992 when sentiment rebounded more quickly, the
protracted
> > decline of 1974 soured many investors on stocks for years to come.
> >
> > I am not suggesting that we are headed for a repeat of 1974; I do not
think
> > any of us can divine the future. But looking back can be worthwhile,
if
> > only to remind ourselves that markets will find a way to surprise the
> > majority of investors and downtrends feed on buyers turned sellers who
> > "didn't think it would go this low."
> >
> > Have a good week,
> > Jim Alvis
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Monday, September 03, 2001 6:31 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] There Are No Rules!!
> >
> > > Bobr,
> > >
> > > If you look at the band of historical values for the past 100 years
you
> > > will see that you could halve the DJIA or S&P and it would still be
> > > expensive. Back in 1974, I was buying stocks with a 6 PE and a 6% div.
> > > yield. Where would those valuations put the current indices? Oh my!
<G>
> > >
> > > Cheers,
> > >
> > > Norman
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Monday, September 03, 2001 4:39 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] There Are No Rules!!
> > >
> > >
> > > > Let's assume that W. Buffet is correct in that we are in for 8 years
of
> > > > stagnation or slow growth. I did not read his exact comments and
might
> > be
> > > > in error on the paraphrase. Then lets assume the Dow dividends will
> > > remain
> > > > the same or even decrease. In July they were $174 with the DJIA
around
> > > > 10,500 yielding 1.65%. The snp and the dow tend to run into stiff
> > > > resistance at 1.5% dividends. It seems to me that prices are not
yet
> > > > reflecting the reality of Buffet's analysis. Nor are they
reflecting
> > the
> > > > significant tax selling directly ahead. The olde megaphone is
speaking
> > > > rather loudly about a drop to the area between 8000 and 9000 at a
> > minimum
> > > > and that would only bring the yield up to 2%. It just doesn't seem
like
> > > too
> > > > far a fetched possibility.
> > > >
> > > > bobr
> > > > http://www.zubee.com
> > > > http://www.oextrader.com/sigma_trader
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Monday, September 03, 2001 1:11 PM
> > > > Subject: [RT] There Are No Rules!!
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > I have been reading the Daily Comment columns (left side of main
page)
> > > for
> > > > > some months now at http://www.comstockfunds.com/ and have found
many
> > to
> > > be
> > > > > interesting, especially since they provide some balance to the
> > constant
> > > > drum
> > > > > of bullishness still found in the media. The latest daily comment
> > "There
> > > > Are
> > > > > No Rules!!" offers a pithy counterpoint to those who argue that
the
> > > > oversold
> > > > > technicals (TRIN, A/D, oscillators, etc.) demand an end to the
bear
> > > > market.
> > > > >
> > > > > Earl
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
> >
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>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
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