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The eyeball analysis of this chart indicates that two back to back low
readings of the Probability Sympathizer preceed a short upswing. Last
Tuesday and Wednesday there were two back to back readings of 0.29 but we
did not get the upswing, yet, perhaps because it preceeded Labor day
weekend. The negative in this view is that over many years of data, the
0.29 level is associated with "bear" market patterns where most PS values
run below 0.6. The analysis says we should get a sharp rally followed by a
lower low. Channel analysis is looking at 558 for the OEX if we had
"crash" on Tuesday. Just a "strong" down day would produce 563 to 567 and a
"normal" down day would run to 572. Would not be too surprising to see an
attempt to test the channel centerline first and maybe hit 583 before
heading down as that is the nature of price action. The horizontal solid
red line at 600 was the head and shoulders top to neckline downside target.
That was tested and failed. It is also hoped for by the bullishly inclined
that last week has created some pentup buying, thus 587 to 591 would fall
into the classification of a strong upside day and the 587 would come a
shade under Thursday's high. Such a move would be in accordance with the
sharp rally and lower low forecast of the back to back days at 0.29.
bobr
----- Original Message -----
From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, September 03, 2001 3:31 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] There Are No Rules!!
> Bobr,
>
> If you look at the band of historical values for the past 100 years you
> will see that you could halve the DJIA or S&P and it would still be
> expensive. Back in 1974, I was buying stocks with a 6 PE and a 6% div.
> yield. Where would those valuations put the current indices? Oh my! <G>
>
> Cheers,
>
> Norman
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, September 03, 2001 4:39 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] There Are No Rules!!
>
>
> > Let's assume that W. Buffet is correct in that we are in for 8 years of
> > stagnation or slow growth. I did not read his exact comments and might
be
> > in error on the paraphrase. Then lets assume the Dow dividends will
> remain
> > the same or even decrease. In July they were $174 with the DJIA around
> > 10,500 yielding 1.65%. The snp and the dow tend to run into stiff
> > resistance at 1.5% dividends. It seems to me that prices are not yet
> > reflecting the reality of Buffet's analysis. Nor are they reflecting
the
> > significant tax selling directly ahead. The olde megaphone is speaking
> > rather loudly about a drop to the area between 8000 and 9000 at a
minimum
> > and that would only bring the yield up to 2%. It just doesn't seem like
> too
> > far a fetched possibility.
> >
> > bobr
> > http://www.zubee.com
> > http://www.oextrader.com/sigma_trader
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Monday, September 03, 2001 1:11 PM
> > Subject: [RT] There Are No Rules!!
> >
> >
> > > I have been reading the Daily Comment columns (left side of main page)
> for
> > > some months now at http://www.comstockfunds.com/ and have found many
to
> be
> > > interesting, especially since they provide some balance to the
constant
> > drum
> > > of bullishness still found in the media. The latest daily comment
"There
> > Are
> > > No Rules!!" offers a pithy counterpoint to those who argue that the
> > oversold
> > > technicals (TRIN, A/D, oscillators, etc.) demand an end to the bear
> > market.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
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