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The McClellan Oscillator appears to have become near useless as a market
timing tool (ala Time Trend III) because it is whipsawing back and forth so
frequently ... this may in large part be due to decimalization which has
apparently caused unchanged issues/volume to decline and advancing
issues/volume to increase. I would also note that VIX after a modest rise,
declined to 22 and change on Friday ... not the levels from which major
rallies are launched. There are many times, while trading S&P futures, that
I have the distinct impression that the locals are fully in charge. In my
view, Friday's rally was impressive but suspect. Consider that CSCO, the
alleged instigator of the rally, is selling at an astronomical PE ... a
clear indication that the tech bulls have not thrown in the towel. I don't
know if it will be next week, next month, or next year, but I firmly believe
this market is going a lot lower.
In the meantime, I just try to pick off some of each day's swing and my
trading bias remains down until a base is in. However, I am attaching a
chart of the spoo, which makes a credible case that 5 waves down have been
completed. If this is the case we should expect an ABC rally which retraces
to the general vicinity of the W.4 high around 1234. This seems to jive with
the weekly counts which suggest that the larger W.5 is not complete.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "profitok" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: "Vincent DONOVAN" <vdonovan@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, August 26, 2001 12:05 PM
Subject: [RT] sp500
> Hello
> the sp500 is somewhat stronger then the NASDAQ(Mcllullen osc at a better
reading) I still see a decrease for next week
> a lake of participation (low holiday week)
> the 5 day total trin the 5 day Ave trin and the 10 day Ave trin are at a
15 day low
> add to that a decreasing p/c and
> the icing on the cake an increase in price without an increase in new hi
> be careful
> Ben
>
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